Who is the best defense in the league, Minnesota or Seattle?
Contrary to popular belief, it’s actually difficult for elite fantasy defenses to carry over year to year which is what makes defense highly unpredictable during draft season. These two teams are defying expectations while other contenders for best defense like Houston are miring in mediocrity. Minnesota has been a top 3 fantasy ranked defense for three straight seasons including their feats so far. Seattle established their elite defense last season finishing as the overall number one defense.
Per PFF, Minnesota blitzes at a league high 68% of the time which is over 20% higher than second place. It seems like an insane strategy to blitz at such an astronomical rate but Brian Flores’ incredible design is working wonders for a third year in a row. Seattle put on the most dominant defensive performance of the season on national TV against the Chiefs and they do it in a much different way. Seattle rarely blitzes (ranked 30th in the league) but wrecks havoc with just four rushers. Seattle’s dominance comes in their discipline and setting hard edges. We saw it as the league leading rusher Kenneth Walker was bottled up and everytime he bounced it to the outside, he was immediately met with a defender.
Looking at their advanced defensive stats, it’s hard to distinguish. Minnesota is allowing -0.21 expected points added per play on defense while Seattle is right behind them at -0.17 in second place. The Vikings perform slightly better against the pass where Seattle is slightly ahead against the run. Both defenses are elite and clearly ahead of the pack when it comes to the rest of the league.
Your wide receiver is ASS and I can prove it.
The average separation score (or ASS if you will) is a pretty self explanatory stat, but when graphed against targets per route run, we can see four interesting quadrants. Who is getting open versus who is getting targets? So what jumps out on this graph?
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is quite literally off the charts. The usual suspects are all there at the top, but Zay Flowers has entered that conversation of elite wide receivers and you have to remember he’s doing it without Lamar Jackson for the last few games.
There’s a lot of players getting open but not getting fed. These are great positive regression guys for the second half of the fantasy season. Immediately the names that jump out to me are Josh Downs (who is currently in a lot of trade rumors), Rome Odunze (amidst a Ben Johnson-Caleb Johnson tour de force) and these next three rookies I will talk about.
Antonio Williams is a prime candidate for a second half breakout with the season long injury to Terry McLaurin. Makai Lemon will also see more opportunities with injuries and uncertainy plaguing the Philadelphia Eagles across the team but significant injuries at the wide receiver position. Denzel Boston has already been quietly a sneaky good receiver the first seven weeks but has been overtaken by Concepcion on the chart.
Let’s check in on the rookies.
Overall it’s been a tough year for rookies at the QB, RB and TE positions. The preseason rookie of the year favorite was Jeremiyah Love who has sunk in a disgusting timeshare in Arizona. He’s also been unavailable due to injury and actually speaking to the coaching staff about letting the other guys play more (which is a first for me). No other rookie RB cracks the top 50.
Rookie receivers have made a bigger impact in the first half of the season. The highest rated rookie receiver is Denzel Boston who sits at WR22. He’s followed by Carnell Tate (WR40), Omar Cooper Jr. (WR41) and Germie Bernard (WR51) just misses the top 50 cutoff.
After starting off to a red hot 3-0, the Raiders have come back down to Earth recently and fans have begun to wonder if we will see Fernando Mendoza anytime soon. Klint Kubiak recently gave a strong endorsement to Kirk Cousins as the starting QB of the team, but it’s hard to tell if that is coach speak or another few losses will trigger a Mendoza start.
The most likely second half bounce back candidates are…
Chase Brown currently sits at RB30 but has maintained a 70%+ snap rate in five of six games. With Joe Burrow playing out of his mind, the offense healthy, and the defense exceeding expectations (currently ranked first in the league in sacks), you can expect some touchdowns to come for Brown. I am slightly concerned about Perine’s usage around the goal line, so that is definitely a nothing burger.
It’s hard to believe Ja’Marr Chase is ranked WR15. When you factor in that he left one game early with a concussion and has already had his bye week, it’s all systems go for the all pro WR to crack the top five again this season. I’m a big believer in this Bengals offense this season and if they can stay healthy, it’s pretty much a guaranteed bet Chase will bounce back.
Tyler Warren, Harold Fannin and Colston Loveland are all outside the top ten at the tight position even though they were drafted in the TE3-7 range in most leagues. I’m a believer in the talent of all three and their situations should warrant they all return back to the top ten at some point this season.
