Welcome General Managers to Part 2 of our ultimate BFFL 2023 season preview. If you missed Part 1, I highly encourage you to read it here. In part 1 we discussed the draft date, a tentative schedule, the elections and a free agent round up of a busy off season going into this upcoming NFL season. Here in Part 2 we will look at the rules being enforced in 2023 as well as my top ten rookies to watch out in fantasy this season.
Rules Enforced in 2023
With so much discussion last year of new rules, I thought it would be a good chance to review the 2023 rules coming into effect this season. This includes four new rules as well as one passed unanimously last season which was also in place last season, but I thought it would be a good opportunity for a reminder.
1.) Introduce permanent Tight End position in replacement of one WR/TE slot.
2.) Draft Pick Trading CC Review Process. Rounds 1-5 are automatic review. GMs will have to bring up after Round 5 for review.
3.) Competition Committee will re-evaluate the fantasy awards process and amend awards.
4.) FAAB Non-continuous
5.) Acquisition limit – No Limit
The tight end rule is pretty self explanatory and will ultimately change two of the biggest factors in BFFL: the draft and roster construction/management throughout the season. With one less WR/TE slot, that essentially means removing one starting wide receiver position from each team. This will undoubtedly have impacts on the number of receivers drafted early given the possible four startable receivers (while running backs are more scarce after the first two rounds). I believe WR-WR starts, which were more viable in the past, will be far more rare given the more availability of the position and the holes at the QB-RB-TE slots will be more realized as a rare commodity. The mandatory tight end slot will also be huge given how few dedicated pass catching tight ends there are left in the league. After Travis Kelce, who is in the conversation for the number one overall pick and arguably most dominant at his position for fantasy, the fantasy experts will establish another two tiers of good 3-6 tight ends and then a massive drop off. At that point of the draft, you are basically gambling for a tight end to either catch 3 or 4 passes for 30-40 yards or catch a lucky touchdown. Middle to late round tight end analytics will be more focused on advanced statistics like routes run (utilizing high routes run on bad teams and just banking on volume like Tyler Conklin for a majority of last season) or someone who excels in red zone targets like David Njoku last season. I haven’t formally begun thinking about a 2023 draft strategy but if I get a top 3 pick, I think Travis Kelce is in the discussion as one of the safest picks in fantasy football.
Draft Pick trading triggering an automatic CC review process is probably one that is overdue. Given the large amount of first round picks being traded in the last five years correlating to some really strong teams and playoff/championship perennial contenders, I think this is fair.
The competition committee will evaluate the criteria for the fantasy awards process and amend awards. I do not have too much information personally on where we are at with this, but we have roughly a month and a half from the time I’m writing this to come to the table on the draft day with clear propositions so this is a wait and see.
FAAB being non-continuous was voted in unanimously last season, so no changes are being enforced this season. A non-continous FAAB basically means there is a “free” agency period after waivers clear allowing people to add unclaimed players for free, similar to an unrestricted free agency with no waivers/FAAB being enforced.
Acquisition limit being increased to no limits is a rule that really needed to be in place when FAAB was installed and now we will finally get to benefit from this. When you have a $200 budget, your limiting constraint should be your budget not the amount of transactions, which I believe the league got correct by voting this rule into effect in 2023.
Bali’s Top Ten Rookies for Fantasy 2023
I love watching the draft and seeing those player comp videos to see how teams view prospects and predicting how they will fit into schemes. As always there are two edges to this sword; talent and opportunity. Here are some of the rookies, including some long shots, who I think will make a big impact in fantasy this season.
10. Tank Bigsby: My number ten rookie to keep an eye on is more of a dark horse candidate. Coming into the league at 6’-0” and 210 lbs, Bigsby is an upright physical runner who looks good on paper next to a shifty more versatile Travis Etienne. The difficult thing will be getting enough snaps to really make it count. In 2022 from Weeks 7-16 when Etienne regained health and a full grasp of the job from James Robinson, Etienne posted snap count percentages of 80%, 79%, 81%, 78%, bye week, 8% (injury), 88%, 75%, 73% and 71%. When healthy, this is Etienne’s backfield. One of Bigsby’s weaknesses is his availability as a third down back, which is what Etienne excels at. It will be mostly injury insurance at first, but Bigsby is talented enough to contribute in a bigger role and may provide some usability in goal-line situations but this is Etienne’s team out of the gate.
9. Bryce Young: How is the #1 overall pick this far down the list? Well the truth is a rookie quarterback on a middling team with a very mediocre supporting cast is not going to be a sexy pick in 2023 fantasy football. Some years down the road, Young may be an elite franchise quarterback as he is being projected right now but he has a lot of red flags in his rookie year. Being one of the smallest quarterbacks in combine history, Young will face the plight of the smaller QB with a 5’-10” and 204lb frame which makes me nervous from a physicality standpoint. For younger quarterbacks, I like to look for a nice rushing floor and while Young has the poise and comfortability inside a pro style offense going through reads, he is more of a pocket passer who uses his legs as a last resort. The NFC South is wide open, so I may be eating these words.
8. Quentin Johnston: I always love when a team has a “type” for their receivers and they find the immediate successor in the draft. Well, meet the new Mike Williams who will play alongside the old Mike Williams and the veteran Keenan Allen. Johnston is a 6’-2” long physical speedster with the downside of questionable hands and a lack of physicality in his rookie year. These are things that can be developed and improved…much like Mike Williams who broke out in 2022. His landing spot is both a gift and a curse: talented generational quarterback but a crowded, albeit injury prone receiver room. This is another boom-bust gamble who could make an immediate impact depending on his colleagues at the position.
7. Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The best receiver prospect in 2023 JSN landed in another stacked receiver room next to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Much to my chagrin as a 49ers fan, JSN looks like the most polished and complete prospect with elite route running and hands and will be able to immediately play from the slot and contribute. The only real cap on his ceiling is how much offense there is to go around. Is Geno Smith talented enough to support three fantasy-viable receivers? Is this a run first team or a pass happy team? As a prospect I love him but the landing spot was not ideal in his rookie season.
6. Zach Charbonnet: Mark my words this will be a trendy RB riser across draft boards in 2023. With such high draft capital invested in a running back, why did Seattle draft another running back after Kenneth Walker looked like a stud in 2022? Walker struggled in passing situations and was a monster home run hitter for big plays in the run game, but Charbonnet will bring a balance to the passing game and is seen as a more polished overall prospect rusher. I believe there is an immediate role for Charbonnet to immediately start contributing as a rookie out of the gate in 2023 and his upside is massive if there is any injury to Walker. This looks like an early Chubb/Hunt committee.
5. Dalton Kincaid: In what was known as a strong tight end draft, the king of tight ends was Dalton Kincaid and the landing spot was immaculate. Now that tight ends are a mandatory position in the league, it’s important to evaluate them different from receivers. If we can accept the fact that there is only Travis Kelce, and then 4-5 good tight ends, and the rest is a crapshoot, we have to accept its more than a 50% chance we are playing craps with who we get at tight end. Kincaid profiles as a big body receiver who plays physical to the point of contact and is a terrible run blocker; which is great for us in fantasy. Whether or not he can beat out Dawson Knox is irrelevant because his strengths as a pass catcher will immediately draw the eye of Josh Allen and make him a contributor. If you’re going to gamble on a tight end past the first five or six guys, why not take a shot at one of the best pure pass-catching tight end prospects we’ve seen in a while.
4. Jordan Addison: Not the best receiving prospect, but the skill set and landing spot make him my favorite rookie receiver to target in 2022. If there is one thing we have learned in fantasy from the last five years, it is rookie receivers are here to contribute immediately and you should not be afraid to start the talented rookies with confidence. Losing Adam Thielen opened up a very opportunistic spot alongside Justin Jefferson in a great fantasy offense and here comes a premiere draft pick from USC which has produced some of the best receivers in the past decade. Not a deep threat burner out of the gate, but Addison is going to fit in nicely in Thielen’s role working over the middle of the field and exposing zone defenses making him an excellent complement to Justin Jefferson who has been destroying NFL defenses at every level for the last three seasons.
3. Anthony Richardson: The most athletic prospect we’ve probably ever seen at the quarterback position. If you haven’t seen Richardson play or the combine videos, let me make this easy for you to understand: This is Lamar Jackson inside of Cam Newton’s body. Richardson silenced critics at the combine with excellent accuracy on his deep ball and destroyed running quarterback metrics for a guy this size. Richardson will compete with Minshew but is projected to start the 2023 season and will provide a nice floor with his rushing. How he progresses as a passer and limits turnovers, which is easier said than done and is punishing by our league standards, will limit how much of a sleeper Richardson is at QB.
2. Jahmyr Gibbs: In other years, Gibbs would hold the top spot but he is a nice #2 this year. Currently going as RB19, Gibbs profiles as a 1A in a backfield shard with Montogmery. The offense, the volume, the supporting cast and the playcalling makes this an awesome land spot. However David Montgomery’s presence is the glass ceiling that the Gibbs owner in 2023 will have to struggle with. We’ll have to wait until training camp but I am expecting a 60/40 split at best with a healthy Montgomery filling that Jamaal Williams role as a bigger physical back in the red zone and goal-to-go situations. But between the 20s, I believe Gibbs’ elusiveness, speed and pass catching will give enough volume to justify his draft position and viability as a high end RB2. Any injury or downgrade to Montgomery’s snaps will instantly rocket Gibbs’ value up to a low to mid RB1. The offense was such a bright spot in 2022, and every fantasy football GM is salivating at the 17 rushing touchdowns vacated by the departure of Jamaal Williams.
1. Bijan Robinson: We all knew this was going to be the top spot. Bijan Robinson profiles as a generational talent who can line up all over the field and excel as a slot receiver or out of the backfield. And the landing spot couldn’t be better: Atlanta quietly boasts one of the best rushing offenses in the league, masterminded by Arthur Smith who was responsible for the rise of Derrick Henry and the Titans offense. This Atlanta offense turned Cordarrelle Patterson’s career around and made him a viable RB1 for two seasons. Now with a running back of Bijan Robinson’s talent level, the sky is the limit. Robinson’s rare combination of power, speed and elusiveness in the running game is on the level of Saquon Barkley out of the gate and his versatility puts him in an elite class of running back akin to Alvin Kamara. I’ve seen Robinson projected as high as #3 OVERALL in 2023 and honestly I’m not opposed to it.
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