Navigating QB Injuries
Injuries to star quarterbacks in the first three weeks have brought some short term values to a lot of backups. For a summary of replacements, please see below:
Jayden Daniels -> Marcus Mariota
JJ McCarthy -> Carson Wentz
Brock Purdy -> Mac Jones
Joe Burrow -> Jake Browning (for season)
Justin Fields -> Tyrod Taylor
This is not an injury, but on Tuesday was that the Giants would bench Russel Wilson and turn to Jackson Dart.
While most injury return timelines are similar amongst these quarterbacks (2-3 weeks), Joe Burrow was the most crushing loss in Week 2. Now with at least one week of data on all backup quarterbacks, we saw how all of these offenses operate with some degree of drop off. Jake Browning walked into a doomsday defense in Week 3 where the entire offense was obliterated. Despite the horrible outcome, Browning has the most value as a season-long starter, and has the added benefit of continuity and experience in this offense.
Marcus Mariota and Carson Wentz both turned in top ten performances in Week 3. Both quarterbacks operated in cruise control as their teams held huge leads and ran the ball down their opponent’s throats. Mariota offered a higher floor with his added 40 rushing yards and rushing touchdown.
Are Wide Receivers Regressing?
Is it just me or does it seem like most of the top 12 drafted wide receivers are drastically underperforming this year? To start, let’s list them out in order of drafted appearance along with their current rank:
Jamar Chase, drafted WR1, ranked WR23
Justin Jefferson, drafted WR2, ranked WR22
Ceedee Lamb, drafted WR3, ranked WR32
Nico Collins, drafted WR4, ranked WR26
Amon-ra St. Brown, drafted WR5, ranked WR1
Brian Thomas Jr., drafted WR6, ranked WR47
Puka Nacua, drafted WR7, ranked WR4
Malik Nabers, drafted WR8, ranked WR7
Ladd McConkey, drafted WR9, ranked WR57
Drake London, drafted WR10, ranked WR64
AJ Brown, drafted WR11, ranked WR39
Terry McLaurin, drafted WR12, ranked WR61
Amon-ra St. Brown and Puka Nacua are excluded from this conversation. They are both studs and look like the two best receivers in football. While Malik Nabers had a dynamite Week 2 performance and slow Week 3, he is navigating a QB transition so he is almost in a tier of his own just below St. Brown and Nacua: very good but question marks about quarterback going forward.
Slow starters? Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson and Nico Collins all ranked inside the top 30 have shown their first round talent but have been hampered by sputtering offenses. As the season progresses, quarterback play stabilizes in all three situations, we can expect these players to get back into the top ten.
Something is really wrong here: AJ Brown, Drake London, Brian Thomas Jr. and Ladd McConkey have been some of the biggest disappointments in fantasy football this year. The Eagles were pushed to the brink with a massive deficit against the Rams before they learned they could pass the ball. Before that, Jalen Hurts had thrown ZERO intermediate passes between 0-20 yards in the first two weeks of the regular season. Brian Thomas and the other Jaguars receivers have been suffering from stone hands and dropping a league leading 12% of passes. Ladd McConkey is the most frustrating candidate here as he appears to be the odd man out on a high powered Chargers offense that is featuring Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen. Drake London went from being peppered with targets to running wind sprints as it appears the Falcon have a commitment to running the ball as the playcalling and Penix’s growing pains have hampered the passing game overall.
Another important trend to consider is the NFL’s defenses adjusting to current trends. The new kickoff rules have given better average field position, less turnovers and was created to encourage higher scoring games. This is all great for fantasy. In the mid 2010s, passing volume was at an alltime high with multiple 5000 yard passers and incredible wide receiver talent across the league with names like Antonio Brown, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, etc. The next crop of elite quarterbacks brought guys like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. The NFL adjusted by employing a high percentage of Cover 2 with two safeties to guard against the deep pass. And then NFL offenses adjusted by featuring the running back again which leads us back to the answer of why our elite receivers have regressed.
Top 5 Buy and Sell
Is Jaxon Smith-Njiba an elite wide receiver?
YES, I’m buying this stock. I was very high on JSN in the preseason and he showed flashes of this last season. JSN was a stud prospect in college and was finally released from being trapped behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the depth chart. In his rookie season he had a league bottom air distance on target which was the worst case usage of his talent. With the departure of Shane Waldron, he has the entire route tree available and is being utilized all over the field to his full potential.
Did Quentin Johnston finally fix his drop issues?
I’m a little more hesitant but I think I would lean yes on this as well. It’s been statistically proven that drops are not a sticky stat from year to year (just look at Brian Thomas Jr. this season vs last season) and Johnston has first round draft pedigree. I am chalking this up to being an atypical late bloomer at the WR position. Combining Justin Herbert’s ascension to MVP territory with the Jim Harbaugh effect (I just think he’s a one in a million coach) and you’ve got QJ finally being a fantasy relevant WR2.
Is this Daniel Jones thing for real?
I may look really bad for this take at the end of the season, but I am not buying it yet. The Colts have been built with a good offensive line, one of the top running backs in the game, decent receivers but have been lacking a league average QB to hold it all together. Daniel Jones has a cool nickname now and is putting up Josh Allen stats, but I’m reserving my judgment until the end of the season and banking on him regressing back to an average QB.
Does the NFC go through the Packers alone?
It’s almost impossible that a good team can land a great franchise altering player via a trade before the season, but the addition of Micah Parsons as well as the Packers dismantling the Lions in Week 1 really helped fuel this narrative that the Packers are far and away the best team in the NFL. I’m NOT buying it! We can’t have recency bias when we know in the history of the NFL that teams change and the landscape of the NFL looks drastically different in December vs September. With the attrition and unfortunate injuries of the NFL regular season, we know that there is too much volatility. Putting that argument to the side, you can’t discount the defending champion Eagles or the Lions who just crushed the Ravens on MNF. Don’t forget about the 3-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers either.
Is the Chiefs dynasty finally over?
As much as I wish I could say yes, I know too much from painful experiences that this is a completely different team in January and my answer to the question is a resounding “No”. All they have to do is get into the playoffs and then watch out. You can’t stop making Friday the 13th movies until you actually kill Jason.
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