Every year I like to learn about some more advanced analytics that other fantasy blogs and writers look at as a predictive model for fantasy success. As statistics and fantasy football continues to grow, it’s important to keep a little index of some of these terms to help make sense of the endless and sometimes mindless fantasy football content out there. Below I’ve highlighted two statistical categories after two weeks to see if they correlate with what’s happening in the fantasy landscape.
XFP (expected fantasy points per team play) After Week 1
Expected fantasy points is a baseline metric to give an idea how an average player in a perfectly average situation would perform. Now while some players are victimized by overall team success or the opposite, XFP per team play gives us a better idea how some of the top players so far are monopolizing their offense.
| Rank | Player Name | XFP (Fantasy Points) |
| 1 | Malik Nabers | 0.42 |
| 2 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 0.42 |
| 3 | Christian McCaffrey | 0.40 |
| 4 | Marquise Brown | 0.39 |
| 5 | CeeDee Lamb | 0.38 |
| 6 | Drake London | 0.37 |
| 7 | Zay Flowers | 0.34 |
| 8 | Puka Nacua | 0.2* |
| 9 | Bijan Robinson | 0.28 |
| 10 | Tied – Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Javonte Williams | 0.28 |
Malik Nabers has feasted in 2025 and is no surprise to be the top guy on this list. After breaking out as a rookie, we are now expecting Nabers to take another step forward to be a top 5 pick in fantasy for many upcoming years. JSN is another rising star who has no competition gobbling up air yards with the departure of Metcalf and Lockett.
The most surprising name on this list has to be Marquise “Hollywood” Brown who is ranked #4 overall and looks like he can be an absolute target hog in the short term with absences from top pass catchers in Worthy and Rice. While Kelce continues to be featured in the passing offense, the Chiefs are in desperate need of a vertical passing game and Brown is the player who fits the bill after two weeks.
Zay Flowers may have been the cheapest WR1 in fantasy this season and is the biggest recipient of Lamar Jackson’s dominant start to the season. Puka Nacua passes the eye test as the next great receiver and getting another great receiver on the other side will free him up to have a career year. Another surprising name on this list is Javonte Williams who is proof that sometimes all you need is volume and his hot start to the 2025 season has been maximized by goal to go carry opportunities successfully converted into touchdowns.
EPA (Expected points added per play) Through Week 2
EPA is a QB-exclusive stat that is hard to attribute to a singular factor but more so shows offensive efficiency and a QB’s ability to command their offense. EP is the expected points a quarterback will get on a play given historical data, trends and takes in the context of the game. Therefore, EPA is the difference between the actual points the quarterback earned minus their expected points. In simplistic terms, a positive EPA increases the offense’s chance of scoring and a negative does the opposite.
| Rank | Player Name | EPA (NFL Points) |
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | 0.438 |
| 2 | Brock Purdy | 0.411 |
| 3 | Josh Allen | 0.372 |
| 4 | Jordan Love | 0.352 |
| 5 | Jared Goff | 0.346 |
| 6 | Daniel Jones | 0.335 |
| 7 | Justin Herbert | 0.278 |
| 8 | Drake Maye | 0.241 |
| 9 | Baker Mayfield | 0.20 |
| 10 | Michael Penix | 0.179 |
There’s no surprise with the heavy hitters Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen sitting at 1 and 3, the top two fantasy quarterbacks and perennial MVP candidates for the foreseeable future who maximize their offensive output as elite passers and elite rushers, the only two in the game. One common trend is teams who retain their playmaking identity, core personnel and schemes are likely to remain consistent on this list and constant fantasy producers with one notable exception. The last three seasons Baker Mayfield went through three playcallers (the past two who became head coaches in Carolina and Jacksonville) and looks like he has not lost a stride as he bids for another top 5 fantasy QB finish and is getting some sneaky odds at NFL MVP.
Some surprises on this list include Daniel Jones, Drake Maye and Michael Penix. While “Indiana Jones” begins phase two of his career on the Colts flanked by a strong offensive line and run game, we are beginning to see him have a career resurgence. Only time will tell if it is short-lived or if it is a real career renaissance. Maye and Penix represent the younger class of QB on up and coming offenses. Penix’s team flipped the script into a run heavy offense in Week 2 and dominated with nearly 200 yards on the ground and could not be stopped. Maye’s year 2 breakout was prognosticated by many fantasy experts despite a shaky start to the 2025 season.
Source: https://rbsdm.com/stats/stats/
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