#4 Gandalf the Goat (-18.5) at #1 Game of Zones
Gandalf the Goat crushed wildcard weekend with another Josh Allen masterclass and is now a whopping 18.5 point favorite against the #1 seed Game of Zones coming off their bye and making their BFFL playoff debut. We have experience and greatness with Gandalf who is chasing his third ring in five years against a first year team making a splash as the #1 seed. These two teams met in Week 12 where Game of Zones got the edge over Gandalf by a score of 80.68-75.98. How will this rematch clash of the titans fare?
Quarterbacks: If this is really a debate, you haven’t been paying attention. Josh Allen has scored over 100 fantasy points in the last two weeks and in that span scored 10 touchdowns to zero turnovers. He will now face an absolute cream puff matchup against New England in a divisional rival match at home. He will face Aaron Rodgers who enters the week as the QB12 on the season and is decent by all accounts. Rodgers is coming off his best performance of the year putting up 36 fantasy points and now faces a Rams defense that has tightened up on their defensive ratings the past few weeks. Advantage Josh Allen.
Running Backs: With three startable running backs in the matchup, Gandalf can choose between Isaac Guerendo, Alvin Kamara and Najee Harris who all have the advantage of being healthy and in heavy volume opportunity shares in their respective offenses. Game of Zones will bring out Rico Dowdle who has seized the lion’s share of the workload in Dallas with three consecutive weeks of 70%+ snap share and over 14 fantasy points in each of those games. All four potential running backs face tough matchups, but at this point of the season the only thing that matters is volume and health. This is a push for me.
Wide Receivers: This is the biggest advantage Game of Zones holds over most teams is an elite wide receiver core of AJ Brown, Garrett Wilson and Zay Flowers. Ceedee Lamb is elite and the best receiver in this matchup, but I don’t believe McBridge and Meyers can compare to Wilson and Flowers’ upside in this matchup. Advantage to Game of Zones.
X-Factors: What’s a good x-factor we can discuss? How about the quarterback who scored 100 fantasy points in the last two weeks?
Verdict: I’m going to sound like a broken record, but I can’t bet against Josh Allen until someone actually beats him. With the matchup being a push, it’s going down to the X-factor. I got Gandalf the Goat winning 95-90.
#3 Bruce Almighty at #2 Cloud 9 (-7.5)
After knocking off the defending champion, Bruce stays marching against the North but now faces himself against the King of the North. After being disrespected in Wildcard Weekend, Cloud 9 put on a performance for the ages with 130 fantasy points in advancing to the semi-finals round. Both teams met earlier this season in Week 11 where Cloud 9 picked up the victory 99.30-86.56. Which GM will win the rematch and earn a trip to the Superbowl?
Quarterbacks: With Brock Purdy’s recent struggles, Bruce has turned it back to rookie Bo Nix with the hope that Bo can generate some offense with his legs and channel some of that magic he found in the middle of the season when he posted a 35 and 36 fantasy point statline. Bo Nix enters the matchup as QB9 on the season which is very impressive for a rookie who was counted out a long time ago. Having said all that, this matchup appears to be one-sided. The only quarterback with more fantasy points this season than Josh Allen is Lamar Jackson who is coming off a five touchdown monster performance, but will now face a much tougher divisional matchup against the Steelers. The last time Jackson played the Steelers this season, he was held to 13.88 fantasy points, but can lightning strike twice? I got Jackson with the advantage here.
Running Backs: Losing David Montgomery was one of the biggest what-if scenarios of this season as Bruce lost his biggest advantage in fantasy football as the greatest running back duo in the league is effectively cut in half. Kyren Williams is still elite however, enters as the #6 RB on the season and has a great matchup against a reeling Jets defense. He faces Bijan Robinson and D’Andre Swift who have been fairly consistent and reliable all season long. While Bijan has ultimate gamebreaker upside, there is not too much to be excited about Swift other than he provides a steady 5-8 point floor that maybe is enough given how much Cloud 9 can score at the other positions. Bijan will have a tougher matchup against a Giants defense strong against the run, but a player of Bijan’s caliber should be matchup-proof. This essentially boils down to Kyren vs Bijan and it’s about as close to a tie as you can get.
Wide Receivers: Rashod Bateman has been the ultimate feast or famine player this season. His last two statlines: 20 fantasy points and 0 fantasy points. Which Bateman will we see this weekend? Speaking of what-ifs, nobody has been robbed out of more fantasy points and big plays this season than Nico Collins who is still WR17 after missing five games and his big play-touchdown potential makes him a nightmare every week. Bruce Almighty has quietly assembled an elite receiver trio behind Mr. Consistent Mike Evans and two players having career years in Terry McLaurin and Jaxon Smith-Njigba who is in a second year breakout and ready to claim alpha status in the Seattle wide receiver room. You can also throw in Calvin Ridley who will see some action in David Montgomery’s absence and is entering the week as a top 30 WR which is a nice luxury. Bruce has rocked this position all season long and I believe has the advantage in this matchup as well.
X-Factors: Lamar Jackson is the best football player in this matchup. His ceiling can’t be matched by anyone else out there and Nix will face a very tough matchup on Thursday night against the Chargers. How will the Steelers defense fare against Jackson a second time? These AFC North division matchups are typically low scoring, hard-hitting physical matches. Jackson needs to buck that trend if Cloud 9 is going to win.
Verdict: This was such a tough matchup to predict, probably the most I’ve struggled in recent years. I’ve been going back and forth all week long in my prediction. If Montgomery was available, it would be a different story. If I could ride the fence and pick a tie, I would. But nobody wants to read that. Maybe I’m a fool to pick against Stan twice in the playoffs, so here’s my foolish prediction. Bruce wins 95-94.
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