The top five wide receivers after two weeks in order are: Jayden Reed, Rashid Shaheed, Chris Godwin, Justin Jefferson and Nico Collins. To add some context: Reed had a spiked Week 1 performance but underperformed in Week 2 and will be capped on his ceiling until Jordan Love returns. Shaheed only has seven catches, but two of them went for long touchdowns of 59 and 70 yards. Is this sustainable: consider that the Saints have scored on all fifteen of their drives under new OC Klint Kubiak and have been aggressively pushing the ball down the field even with leads. Shaheed will get these long shots on a weekly basis and it’s time to consider the new Saints offense makeover to be legit. Justin Jefferson…enough said.
To me the two interesting guys on this list are Nico Collins and Chris Godwin. While Godwin profiles as a more versatile receiver taking 25% of his snaps in the slot and Collins as a true X, both are over 90% on route participation rate and are averaging 8 targets a game each in strong offenses. These two are my favorite values given their draft and I think they are the most likely to sustain this elite usage and have career high finishes.
This list shows the target share leaders (individual targets divided by total team targets) for the top ten receivers. Some interesting names include:
- Rookie WR Malik Nabers leading all receivers all receivers in the NFL. We knew he was going to be a major cog of this offense, but so far he is the entire offense.
- Once again, Chris Godwin is on another list and is above 30%. This is no fluke, he’s been a top receiver before. He’s finally healthy and he’s doing it again.
- Zay Flowers at 30% shows he has the opportunity to take a major step in his second season. He’s already solidified himself as a top 2 target along with Mark Andrews but he can surpass Andrews and provide the deep threat option this team desperately needs.
- Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey and Jameson Williams all at 25% are going to provide huge values above where they were drafted. Players with high draft pedigree who underperformed or were underdrafted usually provide some of the best dart throw options and these three are panning out (McConkey as a rookie).
This table is sorted by the analysts’ XFP ranking which shows pure volume in the backfield and who is dominating those opportunities. Besides the workhorse backs who were drafted early, some of the names that are popping in this list include:
- Rhamondre Stevenson has assumed a workhorse back on an offense that prioritizes running the ball and playing defense. Stevenson is ranked RB8 and was the 26th drafted running back this season.
- On a more somber note, Pachecho was commanding the running back touches in KC but will now be out for 6-8 weeks. This puts the backups in an interesting role. With so much volume to consume in an elite offense, how will the pie split up between the rejoining Kareem Hunt, Samaje Perine and rookie Carson Steele?
- Jordan Mason with a 98.0% run percentage has taken over the backfield and will continue to be utilized on all running play downs in CMC’s absence. If CMC’s injury window is extended, we may be looking at another league winning player.
Not related to anything posted above, but this has been one of the slowest offensive starts to an NFL season in a while.
After an offensive explosion in 2019 which held steady for four years, the last two years have been trending down and this year is down almost 40% from two years ago in passing touchdowns. Is this caused by defensive adjustments? An influx of terrible quarterbacks and offenses? Teams scheming more run heavy offenses to counter two high safety defenses primarily used to counter pass heavy offenses? Or perhaps it’s an interesting rule change. Although I’m 100% unclear on what the rule actually is, the NFL announced they are making an effort to penalize teams for illegal formations and illegal shifts pre-snap. If you didn’t notice the opening game of the season where flags would fly on people lined up incorrectly, that trend has continued. Players shifting and getting a running start is also starting to be penalized more often which is limiting the creativity of these motion heavy offenses and bringing scoring down. What do you contribute to the decrease in passing touchdowns this season so far?
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