#5 Pool of the Dead at #4 Elk Grove Spartans (-1.2)
This line opens up as the most competitive matchup of the week as the projections have this one as nearly a coin flip. When these teams met in Week 10, it was the Pool of the Dead who prevailed with a score of 102.4-87.2.
Quarterback: It’s hard to pick a QB playing better than Dak Prescott in fantasy right now currently ranked at QB1. Prescott, in the last calendar month has thrown 11 touchdowns and committed just one turnover. A matchup at Buffalo will be tough and a test for the entire Dallas team, but it’s hard to imagine Prescott completely falling off at this spot. Baker Mayfield has come in and saved the season for Pool of the Dead who found their long term QB replacement of Deshaun Watson. Baker is QB15 on the season and has been reasonably good in certain spots. I’ll be honest in that I do not love his matchup at Green Bay. I give this one to the Spartans and Prescott.
Running Backs: Will Josh Jacobs play or will it be Chuba Hubbard? Both teams will look to employ heavy wide receiver sets and only one running back. While this will be the weak link of the matchup and probably not offer any significant advantages, I tend to lean to the big home run ability of Kenneth Walker against a Philadelphia defense that has looked soft particularly at the linebacker position. Advantage goes to Pool.
Wide Receivers: Wide receivers are the bread and butter of both of these teams who have found excellent gems in the draft and free agency and have not looked to change much with the notable exception of the Spartans trading for rookie Zay Flowers in the middle of the season. The combination of Tyreek Hill and Amon’Ra St. Brown has consistently been the most dominant receiver group of the entire regular season. It is hard to discount Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. They will be playing the 31st ranked fantasy defense against receivers in the Washington Commanders. This is a fantastic opportunity to make this matchup much closer than it looks to be on paper. Even so, I will have to side with the season long dominance from the Pool of the Dead.
X-Factors: I think the availability of Josh Jacobs will be crucial. If healthy he has an opportunity to swing this matchup in favor of the Spartans.
Verdict: The Spartans will rely on another monster game from Dak Prescott and the Rams receivers for this one, but I think that Pool wins two out of three crucial matchups and takes this game 85-84.
#7 Isla Sorna Raptors (-7.3) at #2 Jedi Knights
The third matchup of the year between these new budding rivals will be the last of the season, sending one GM home and the other to the next round of the playoffs.
Quarterback: In what looks to be the premiere QB matchup of the wildcard round, we get two top five MVP candidates in Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa. Do not underestimate Miami at home against a reeling Jets team that is on the brink of elimination. After blowing a huge lead to Tennessee, I expect Miami to put the foot on the gas and remind everyone who the class of the AFC East is. Having said that, I believe talent and matchup favors Jalen Hurts. After looking vulnerable for two consecutive weeks, Seattle’s poor pass defense is beckoning a shootout and an opportunity for Philadelphia to get back on track in the NFC conference race. Advantage to Hurts and the Raptors.
Running Backs: Similar to Pool of the Dead’s dominance at the receiver position, no team has put out a stronger running back duo who has consistently dominated all season like the Raptors. Christian McCaffrey and Travis Etienne come in as the #1 and #3 running backs on the season. It’s hard to match this kind of production for any team and it will be no small task for the Jedi Knights. Zack Moss and Alvin Kamara both enjoy good matchups and are a formidable duo in their own right against any other team. But this matchup is about as decisive as it can be for the Raptors.
Wide Receivers: After his return from injury, Deebo Samuel has come alive in the past three games putting up insane stat lines totaling three touchdowns through the air and three more on the ground. Combined with Ja’Marr Chase, who is not suffering much dropoff with backup QB Jake Browning, this is a strong pair of receivers. Receivers have been the weak link of the Raptors all season long and Zay Jones and Chris Godwin do not inspire much confidence in this matchup or any. As much of a landslide as the running back battle could be, I think the same for receivers in the favor of the Jedi Knights.
X-Factors: Both defenses are facing putrid offenses on their second or third quarterbacks and could be poised for big days. A defensive touchdown or two can drastically swing this matchup.
Verdict: This one was very tough to pick. One team clearly dominates RB, one dominated WR, the QB matchup is extremely close but I have to give the edge to the Raptors to win this one 90-88.
#6 No Diggity…about to bag it up at #3 Dr. Jenious (-10.8)
The second meeting between these teams features a similar line to the margin of victory of their Week 11 matchup where Doctor Jenious prevailed.
Quarterback: The loss of Joe Burrow turned the tides on the season for No Diggity. With a healthy burrow, I believe this roster had legitimate Superbowl aspirations. It’s hard to see a team manned by Gardner Minshew win in the playoffs against such a great pool of fantasy QBs left. And with that, we turn to the breakout rookie fantasy superstar of the year CJ Stroud. Stroud, who came off a tough matchup against the Jets, will now face a 21st ranked Titans defense against fantasy QBs. With his receivers banged up, it’s hard to prognosticate elite top 5 upside the rest of the playoffs so I expect a dropoff, but this matchup still belongs to Stroud by a narrow margin.
Running Backs: The doctor’s running back duo of Gibbs and Swift will both enjoy incredible matchups against the 32nd and 28th ranked fantasy defenses against fantasy running backs, respectively. I am not crazy about Gus Edwards and Rico Dowdle. The health of Brian Robinson can close the gap a little. I still prefer Doctor J’s running backs in this matchup.
Wide Receivers: Stefon Diggs has scored below 3.5 fantasy points in three of his last four matchups. We have seen good offenses torch Dallas’ defense particularly in the secondary (see Seattle two weeks ago) and I believe this is a get-right spot for Diggs. Rashee Rice has been a nice flash preview of the future, but with his current usage it’s hard to trust him in a playoff game. The Jenious will roll out the duo of AJ Brown and Michael Pittman who have both been great options all season long. AJ Brown’s matchup against Seattle is another fantastic opportunity for a struggling Philadelphia offense to fix some of their problems in what could be a shootout (over/under currently at 47 points). While Diggs is the best receiver in the match on a pure talent basis, I give the edge to the combo of Brown and Pittman.
X-Factors: It’s hard to predict the tight end position with years of data. Since this is a one off year for tight ends, I have no basis to compare the statistical advantages. But one thing that’s clear is TJ Hockensen has been an elite option and could provide a great edge to swing this matchup.
Verdict: I’m taking the Jenious to win three out of three matchup positional battles and win this one comfortably 90-80.
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