After four weeks of the regular season, we have a good idea of how teams stack up within the division. For the next eight weeks, every GM will battle outside of the division before returning for the final two games of the regular season. With the introduction of prize money awarded to each division winner, one could argue winning your division has never been more important in BFFL history. As is tradition we will now visit the state of the divisions where we get a snapshot of how each division is trending.
FFC West
The Favorite: We start in the FFC West, the most contentious division of the first quarter of the season. Through four weeks, all four teams are tied with a 2-2 record going to a points scored advantage to the division leader Philippines Garbage Dumps. The PGD currently are the ESPN projected winner of the FFC West with a division-high 57% chance of making the playoffs. I concur with that assessment of the division with the PGD having the best overall roster in the West. They have the best talent at the top level (Justin Jefferson and Lamar Jackson are elite 20+ point guys on a weekly basis and I’m throwing Devonta Smith in there at WR15), have strong complimentary starters (James Conner, Raheem Mostert) and excellent depth (Dameon Pierce, Diontae Johnson and Treylon Burks are an excellent foundation starting a bench) with one major weakness at tight end. As tight ends have mostly been a disaster, it may be easier to mitigate with a trade or free agency but currently the PGD are my favorites to win the West.
The Wildcards: I put all three other teams (Spartans, Lin Sanity and Wolf Pack) in this category as no team is really an underdog. Each team has their strengths and weaknesses but no team is far behind the pack in terms of overall talent or division standings. The defending champion Lin Sanity has the biggest obstacles with significant injuries to the running back position but possess a unique tight end advantage in the division. Mark Andrews is currently ranked TE1 in the entire league and provides a massive statistical edge on a weekly basis. If Lin Sanity is able to get replacement level production from Jerome Ford and Jaleel McLaughlin, which may be a longshot, they can be in the mix.
The Elk Grove Spartans are no stranger to injuries and bad luck with first round picks, but they have hit the gold mine in 2023 free agency in landing breakout rookie receiving star Puka Nacua. Going 2-2 without your first round pick is impressive and the return of Kupp should help provide a solid 1-2 punch. Being heavily invested in the Rams passing attack carries some risk, but there is so much talent it’s not like you can risk benching one in favor of the other. I was high on Miles Sanders coming into the season, but the Carolina offense has been a dumpster fire and this backfield is turning more into a committee than I like to imagine. We’ll have to wait to see how Kupp’s return impacts this team’s overall ceiling but they should be in the mix.
The Wolf Pack has turned the keys to the car over to Matthew Stafford after Daniel Jones has effectively looted the New York Giants for all their money and turned back into a pumpkin for Halloween. This team has the biggest edge in the entire league at running back with what I would argue should have been two first round running backs in King Henry and Tony Pollard and that’s the strength that will carry this team forward. The Wolf Pack can compete with the PGD with one of the strongest benches in the entire league carrying players such as Kyren Williams, Rachaad White and Amari Cooper. Jakobi Meyers has been a nice surprise this season. The biggest question mark going forward will be playing the matchups and how good Matthew Stafford can be. Roster wise I think this is the second best team in the division and not far behind the PGD.
FFC East
The Favorites: The co-favorites in the FFC East (both with an ESPN projected 71% chance of making the playoffs) are MD Nuts and No Diggity. Coincidentally both teams have played each other twice and split the season series 1-1 which makes this another neck and neck series that will go back and forth this entire season. MD Nuts have dominated at the wide receiver position with Mike Evans and Keenan Allen both on pace for career seasons and both ranked in the top ten with Allen as WR2 on the season. The running back combination of Jones and Mixon looks good on paper but both players have severely underperformed and are both nearly ranked outside of the top 20 at the position.
No Diggity brings a slightly more balanced attack to the table with a strong RB-WR-TE combination in Brian Robinson (RB6), Stefon Diggs (WR4) and TJ Hockensen (TE6). As big threes goes in the league, this ranks right up near the top. This team would actually be a juggernaut if Joe Burrow wasn’t such a disaster. If Burrow could somehow turn this season around or maybe even get healthier with a week or two off, look out because this team will shoot up to the top of the power rankings. Both teams are equally talented as they currently stand.
The Wildcard: I can’t count this team out yet because I have seen them rise up from the dead before. Gandalf the Goat is too talented and is still ranked 7th in the league in points scored. If we learned anything in the last five years, a top 5 quarterback is the most common recurring trend in playoff teams. I repeat, a top 5 quarterback is a good marker you are going to the playoffs. Now it’s a matter of surrounding Mahomes with talent. CeeDee Lamb, breakout stars Brandon Aiyuk and James Cook is an excellent foundation. Breece Hall carries risk going into this season but today his snap limit was removed so it could be all systems go. Don’t count this team out yet.
FFC South
The Favorites: I think this is a two horse race between Da Moon’s Huge Craters and Bruce Almighty. ESPN projects both of these teams with good odds (58% and 52% respectively for Craters and Bruce) and both teams have looked good in the first four weeks.. Da Moon has dominated the division for the last couple of years and got off to another strong 3-1 start. Having the best tight end in fantasy football is one of the biggest advantages you can have in this game and Kelce has proven he can carry teams to fantasy championships. Kirk Cousins, although inconsistent, has provided some strong starts and is currently the 8th ranked QB in fantasy. This team does have some big question marks at the receiver position with no player currently ranked in the top 30. I love the talent of George Pickens and Drake London, but so far their teams have not supported healthy opportunities for their receivers.
Bruce is currently ranked 6th in the league in points scored and has trended upward after a slow Week 1. I will refer you to my comments above about Patrick Mahomes…now apply them to Josh Allen. Davante Adams (WR6), DJ Moore (WR12) and Gabe Davis (WR18) provide an excellent receiver trio. Most times in fantasy football, winning two positional battles with this big of an edge usually means you are a good team. I believe Bruce should be favored to win the FFC South with this caliber of talent, but it’s going to be another close race at the top.
The Wildcard: Uur UPS, a team decimated by injuries, is currently sitting at 2-2. Having Jordan Love to replace Aaron Rodgers has been a nice surprise as Love currently sits at QB3 on the season. Losing Saquon Barkley for a few weeks has hurt in the division games, but as he gets healthy and pairs up with breakout rookie running back De’Von Achane will make an elite combo at the position. The receivers are good in name but have underperformed due to injury or poor QB play. If the Jets can improve their quarterback play or Christian Watson can get back into the groove he ended the 2022 season with, then this team can make a drastic jump to compete with the two favorites at the top of the division.
The Underdog: Doctor Jenious is facing a little bit of a Superbowl hangover after a dominant 2022 season. Recently they completed a blockbuster trade to send away Hurts and get Justin Fields, Tank Dell and Tyler Lockett. Keeping Michael Pittman was huge in this trade and the doctor significantly improved his receiving options while taking the hit at quarterback. Now that hit didn’t look so bad in Week 4 as Justin Fields put up his best performance of the entire season, but there are some real concerns about the Bears offensive upside. Navigating those ups and downs at quarterback and a very thing running back room is what I believe is keeping this team at a longshot for now.
FFC North
The Favorite: Okay this one is easy, do I really need to state the obvious? The lone 4-0 top dog of the division is the Pool of the Dead. With a whopping 86% projected chance to make the playoffs, this is the early Superbowl favorite. The recipe has been dominance at the receiver position, a top 5 running back, solid quarterback play and how about a fantasy defense that is AVERAGING 19.3 FANTASY POINTS A GAME! I want to put this into some context how dominant of a fantasy defense this is. 19.3 fantasy points per game is good enough to be WR1 or RB4 on the season. There is really nothing to be said; barring catastrophe, this team will be in the playoffs.
The Wildcards: The Korriban Warriors are the number two team in the division and probably the second best odds to win the division. I have them as a strong wildcard contender. Justin Herbert is QB1 on the season and has entered that elite fantasy quarterback status that has been a proven statistical marker of successful playoff teams. This team has been full of draft surprises. Nico Collins and D’Andre Swift both broke out in 2023 as top 10 options at their respective positions and have been consistently good in the first four weeks of the season. This is usually a good marker it’s not a flash in the pan and the data suggests their utilization will give them this top ten upside all season long. And one more thing: they are waiting for this guy named Austin Ekeler to return back to the field. This team is loaded.
I have to put the Isla Sorna Raptors as a wildcard, and not an underdog. Despite a 1-3 start, I think this team is built the right way and has its strengths at the right spots. Having a big three of Jalen Hurts (QB10), Christian McCaffrey (RB1), and Travis Etienne (RB16) is good enough to be competitive and win two key positional battles on a weekly basis. I do not like the receiver prospects (outside of Zay Jones as a solid WR3) or the fact they have three tight ends and will be playing the most insufferable game of tight end russian roulette all season long. These flaws are keeping them out of the contender spot but with a few moves and establishing the tight end position will put them back in the race. And one thing you can definitively say about this GM: he likes to trade and is not afraid to pull the trigger on a big deal.
The Underdog: The Jedi Knights have had a tough start to the season and are ranked second to last in points scored. One saving grace for this team could possibly be the return of Jonathan Taylor. If he brings top 5 upside the rest of the season, that will be a huge injection of life into this offense and help them score some points. I personally believe the Jedi Knights have one big chess piece and that is trading one of two quarterbacks Tua or Anthony Richardson for some more positional help.
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