It was an exciting wildcard weekend and now we are left with the final four teams. This week’s semi-finals matchups includes a third meeting between the divisional foes Elk Grove Spartans and Lin Sanity and a first time matchup this season between Doctor Jenious and Gandalf the Goat. Let’s get into the previews.
#6 Elk Grove Spartans at #1 Lin Sanity
After enjoying a bye week, Lin Sanity now enters the dance facing a familiar enemy in the Elk Grove Spartans who are riding the momentum of a huge wildcard victory against another powerhouse. Both of these teams played twice early in the season and the season series was split. This may not be a factor as both teams look drastically different entering this third and final matchup of the season.
The quarterback matchup features the #2 overall QB Patrick Mahomes going against one of the rising breakout stars and the #9 ranked Tua Tagovailoa. With the advantage of speedy receivers and a dynamic scheme filled with better playmakers (ironically featuring one of Mahomes’ former receivers) Tua certainly has a case for being able to outmatch one of the MVP frontrunners in Mahomes but it will still be a tough task. Mahomes with a slightly tougher matchup makes this more interesting but when it comes to playoff games, I put less stock in factors like matchups and weather and just trust the talent. While I think Tua keeps it close, I have to give the slight advantage to Mahomes and Lin Sanity.
The running back matchup features some of the younger breakout talents that will be shooting up draft boards in the upcoming years. The Spartans will employ their expected lineup of D’Andre Swift and Jeff Wilson whereas Lin Sanity’s running back situation has completely overhauled itself and now rookie sensation Kenneth Walker is in RB1 territory alongside Jerick McKinnon who is slowly taking over the KC backfield. McKinnon’s last three games have involved an elevated usage in the passing game which is valuable in this offense and provides an elevated floor for Lin Sanity who will be able to enjoy almost all of KC’s offensive output against Seattle. I love Walker as a rookie prospect and even compared some of his violent running to a discount Adrian Peterson but a tough matchup and a negative game script against KC may hold him in check. Having said that, it’s hard to trust the Spartans running backs after they have slowly been trending downward the last few weeks. Jamaal Williams presence in goal to go carry situations severely limits Swift’s touchdown upside as he basically has to break a long run or pass play to score. Jeff Wilson is coming off a light hip injury so it’s hard to gauge his usage and availability for this matchup. Given the uncertainty I will have to give the advantage to Lin Sanity.
The wide receivers matchup is where Lin Sanity truly shines. Leveraging Jaylen Waddle against Tua will provide a strong advantage for Lin Sanity who will also roll out Davante Adams and a red hot Devonta Smith who has scored double digits in three consecutive weeks. The Spartans can match anyone’s WR1 with Stefon Diggs but look a little overmatched at the WR2 and 3 positions with Zay Jones and DeMarcus Robinson. Jones is coming off a monster 3 touchdown game and has elevated his entire game over the last month, but a tough matchup against the Jets may negate some of that positive momentum. I have to give this matchup to Lin Sanity.
Final Verdict: Lin Sanity has been the dominant team all season and I expect them to punch another ticket to the Superbowl this year. I got Lin Sanity winning 95-85.
#4 Gandalf the Goat at #2 Doctor Jenious
The defending back to back champion will look to make history with a third consecutive championship game and it all starts with this matchup against everybody’s favorite doctor. But there is one dark cloud of uncertainty hanging over this matchup and we need to address the elephant in the room at quarterback.
Will he or won’t Jalen Hurts play? Jalen Hurts enters the week as the #1 QB in fantasy and one of the forerunners for fantasy MVP and NFL MVP. And he’s facing no slouch either because Gandalf the Goat is bringing the #3 ranked QB in Josh Allen. Similar to Josh Allen’s breakout season, Jalen Hurts running has elevated his upside to overall QB1 in fantasy and has also strengthened his entire offensive output and throwing ability. Adding a dominant wide receiver to a young quarterback has done wonders for their career trajectory in both of these QB cases. When Josh Allen got Stefon Diggs, he became QB1. When Jalen Hurts got AJ Brown, he became QB1. It’s like looking into a mirror. If Hurts is healthy and can go, this matchup is truly a push. Even if he is a little banged up and conservative in his running output this week, I think Josh Allen takes the edge. If Hurts is ruled out then you might as well write this off as a huge win for Josh Allen.
Running back is where we see the first really big advantage for a team (or disadvantage given your perspective). This is an absolute smash spot for Gandalf who is bringing two top six ranked running backs averaging 14.5 and 17.6 fantasy points per week in Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs, respectively. To be fair no team in the league can match up against this running back tandem. The doctor’s running back position has been the one questionable position on an otherwise dominant team all season long and will continue to be a massive obstacle to overcome in this week’s matchup. For reference, Isaiah Pacheco and Cam Akers are both averaging 6.0 and 5.3 fantasy points per game. Pacheco has been a bright spot as a fantasy RB pickup but Akers is a part of an anemic offense in a tough matchup and will provide little upside. Huge advantage to Gandalf the Goat.
Now this is where the Doctor strikes back at the receiver position. Justin Jefferson and Travis Kelce have dominated fantasy football in 2022 both ranked #1 at their positions. In fact Kelce is so dominant this season, he would be ranked #5 amongst receivers. No other team can match this kind of firepower. Gandalf the Goat is no slouch at the receiver position and will bring out a strong lineup of Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams and Chris Godwin. Out of that lineup the most surprising opinion I have is that Garrett Wilson, the rookie, is oddly the most reliable out of the three. Williams in typical fashion has been in and out of the lineup all season long and all it takes is one bad fall to end his day early. His low floor high ceiling volatility is great when you’re strong at other positions and it’s a part of why Gandalf the Goat is vying for his third consecutive championship. This will be one of the better matchups to watch this weekend and I expect the advantage to go to Dr. Jenious.
Final Verdict: This game has the widest range of outcomes based on Jalen Hurts’ availability. I can see a healthy Hurts launch Jenious to the win and I can see the catastrophic result of him sitting and Gandalf the Goat winning a blowout victory. But for the sake of predictions I will say Hurts guts it out because they have not clinched the division yet but will be a little more conservative in his running and taking hits to his injured shoulder. While this might lower his rushing upside a little, you still have to start your studs. I got Gandalf the Goat winning a close one 92-90.
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