As we put a hold on divisional play until the final two weeks of the fantasy regular season, I would like to do one of my favorite annual pieces: “The State of the Divisions” to give my assessment of each division’s favorites and underdogs. With such a significant portion of our schedule having been played, we start to see teams round into shape, some early favorites and some opportunities for improvement and trade opportunities in the upcoming weeks as managers battle bye weeks and injuries. Like I say every year, our rosters will look much different heading into the playoffs so this is a snapshot of just one quarter of the schedule in the books. Today we will focus on looking at the statistics of the first four weeks of the season including overall record and standing in the league in respect to points scored as well as the ESPN provided stat of playoff percentage chance. To evaluate the future outlook, I’ve provided my own “confidence level rating” on a 0-10 scale, factoring in strength of roster, overall potential as well as the aforementioned statistics. The confidence rating is my belief in a team’s ability to legitimately win the championship this season. Think of it as a tiered ranking of the teams. We will revisit these numbers in the future as the playoff picture takes shape.
FFC East
The Favorites
Gandalf the Goat
Record: 3-1
Points Scored Rank: 1
ESPN Playoff Chance: 90%
Confidence Level: 9/10
Strength: I think it’s realistically time to start envisioning a nearly impossible feat in action: a three-peat. The two time defending champion has landed as the favorite in the FFC East and one of the strongest rosters in the league. Saquon Barkley is on his way to a top five finish and comeback player of the year award. Josh Allen is a cheat code in fantasy who dominates his entire offense’s passing and rushing touchdown opportunities: who else besides maybe Lamar Jackson can claim that? This team has a dominant 1-2 punch at RB, a quarterback who will never lose a weekly matchup and a good WR trio of Mike Williams, Chris Godwin and flexing Lockett or Garrett Wilson.
Weakness: RB depth and Volatility at WR. Managing WR matchups and being able to survive the ebbs and flows of Mike Williams boom/bust weeks, Chris Godwin’s health, Lockett’s boom/bust weeks and Garrett Wilson’s rookie struggles will be the only challenge as the Goat will make a run at number three.
Mahomies Deezflated Nuts
Record: 3-1
Points Scored Rank: 5
ESPN Playoff Chance: 59%
Confidence Level: 7/10
Strength: WR. While everyone is killing Kirk Cousins for his inconsistent play, I still think he has a top ten finish at QB and this passing offense is going to be lethal leading to his career best year. Cooper Kupp is the key to this team and will continue to be the huge advantage MD Nuts will hold over every other team.
Weakness: RB depth. MD Nuts is a team that got off to a strong start undoubtedly but has some question marks as the season progresses. The return of Brian Robinson to muddy the waters of the Washington backfield might hurt Antonio Gibson’s value this season. I also have legitimate concerns of Clyde Edwards-Helaire who is being propped up by his sky-high touchdown luck in the first four weeks of the season. However, the analytics suggest CEH is in a heavy committee and his floor going forward is quite low without touchdowns. Now if he keeps getting those high value touches such as goal-line carries, then he could sustain mid RB2 value.
The Underdog
How I Kmet Your Mother
Record: 1-3
Points Scored Rank: 9
ESPN Playoff Chance: 18%
Confidence Level: 6/10
Strength: Fantastic RB depth, high ceiling explosive offense. One of the greatest traits of this team is the rotation of running backs they can serve up on a given week: Jamaal Williams, JK Dobbins, Rhamondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard are an excellent cast of RB2s. The starting wide receiver trio provides great upside in Chase, Lamb and Michael Thomas and we’ve seen their explosive upside combined in one out of four weeks so far
Weakness: Inconsistent RB1 production, QB. Long term at quarterback I don’t see Geno Smith as the answer but as a good streaming option alongside Stafford. A lot of this team’s success will lie in playing the matchups at quarterback and running back and dominating bye weeks with a strong RB rotation. While I touted this team’s strong rotation of RBs, this team lacks a strong RB1 who provides a good high floor/ceiling combo that many other teams have and provides a disadvantage for this team at the position
FFC South
The Favorites
Da Moon’s Huge Craters
Record: 3-1
Points Scored Rank: 6
ESPN Playoff Chance: 70%
Confidence Level: 8/10
Strength: RB, WR depth. I love the starting running backs as Miles Sanders was a huge candidate for positive regression after only scoring one rushing touchdown in 2021 and now already has 3 in 2022. Sanders is no doubt elevated by this elite Philadelphia offense and everyone is eating. You have to be extremely optimistic that McCaffrey is healthy the first four games of the regular season and the rest of season outlook on him is amazing despite having a terrible quarterback and coach combination. McCaffrey has the highest upside of any individual non-QB player in fantasy football. I am also a fan of this team’s depth at WR. Treylon Burks was starting to catch on increasing his snaps, route participation and overall production in the last couple of weeks before his injury. When he returns, he will bolster a strong WR bench.
Weakness: RB depth. The Craters were smart in securing the backups to both starting running backs but there is zero depth at the running back behind that spot which could be problematic for injuries. I think the WR bench players will help to fill in during bye weeks but any injury could be catastrophic for this team.
Doctor Jenious
Record: 3-1
Points Scored Rank: 8
ESPN Playoff Chance: 69%
Confidence Level: 10/10
Strength: Alright here we go. Top to bottom, this starting lineup is the best roster in BFFL and this is my early favorite to win it all. Jalen Hurts has the best shot of dethroning Allen and Mahomes to take the coveted #1 QB spot in 2022 and his first four games are indicative of a career season and possible MVP campaign. Justin Jefferson and Travis Kelce are the best WR1/2 combo in the league and you can’t convince me anyone else is close. Initially when the doctor bid $56 on Curtis Samuel, I thought it was a bit of an overpay but the truth is he might be the league winning free agent of 2022. His usage mirrors Deebo-lite and is currently ranked WR28. Any injuries to the running backs, McLaurin or Dotson (currently out 1-2 weeks with a hamstring) is only going to boost his opportunities and he profiles as a stud third receiver on a team.
Weakness: While Dameon Pierce has started to catch fire in Weeks 3 and 4, the only reservation I have at this team is Cam Akers. Ultimately I still think the Rams have an elite offense and Akers being a low end RB2 is not the worst problem to have.
The Underdogs
Bruce Almightys
Record: 1-3
Points Scored Rank: 15
ESPN Playoff Chance: 16%
Confidence Level: 6/10
Strength: This team has a lot of talent and I think is due for a lot of positive regression. Joe Mixon, James Conner and Raheem Mostert as an RB3 is a fantastic running back group and as the touchdowns come, this team will have better weeks to come. It’s hard to discount Aaron Rodgers. As he develops more chemistry with his young receiver group, I think he still has top 10 upside because of his ridiculous TD:INT ratio and how valuable that is in our scoring format.
Weakness: A team that was pegged as a pre-season contender, Bruce has started off at a snail’s pace in 2022 with a talented team filled with players under performing. Allen Robinson (WR70) and Terry McLaurin (WR33) have been two of the more disappointing receivers starting off slow although McLaurin has had decent games but not really capitalized in the way I thought he would. The addition of Carson Wentz should have improved his deep ball successful catch rate and given more high value targets to McLaurin but the offense is much more well diversified and passes are being distributed equally to the other two receivers Dotson and Samuel. I think McLaurin still has hope but the outlook on Robinson is grim at this point.
Uur UPS
Record: 1-3
Points Scored Rank: 10
ESPN Playoff Chance: 23%
Confidence Level: 6/10
Strength: Similar to Bruce, I love the three running back combination of Austin Ekeler, Ezekiel Elliott and Cordarelle Patterson. A lot of people wrote off Patterson in the offseason as a one-hit wonder but he looks like he was born to play running back and is currently the RB7 (before unfortunately being put on IR for a knee injury). Fortunately Elliott will be available to spell Patterson and provides a great high floor option as an RB2 on a good offense. For everyone who was worried about Austin Ekeler (such as myself) the 2021 touchdown leader put those doubts to bed with a three touchdown performance this past Sunday.
Weakness: I think this is obvious but what in the world is going on with Russell Wilson? Before a much needed 30 point game this past weekend, the Broncos only had one redzone touchdown pass and the overall offense looked anemic. So is the game against the Raiders an outlier or can we count on that production going forward? It’s clear that Wilson has lost some athleticism due to age and lost some rushing upside he had in his prime years in Seattle, but as a pure pocket passer he has an excellent set of receivers and can still be an elite quarterback.
FFC West
The Favorites
Lin Sanity
Record: 3-1
Points Scored Rank: 3
ESPN Playoff Chance: 69%
Confidence Level: 7/10
Strength: This team is top heavy with a couple of really good star players such as Patrick Mahomes and Davante Adams. Mahomes has surpassed my expectations for what a post-Tyreek Hill Chiefs offense would look like and he has thrown 11 touchdowns to 2 interceptions and spread the ball around pretty well. As long as Mahomes is playing on an MVP level like this, this team will have an advantage at the QB position and have a massive ceiling for the most important position in the game.
Weakness: The running back depth after David Montgomery went down reared it’s ugly head in Week 4 unfortunately. Montgomery had gotten a good volume of work in the first two weeks before being injured in Week 3. Without Montgomery, I expect this team will go WR heavy and since Kenneth Walker has not been able to make as much of an impact as Penny in the Seattle backfield, he is currently not startable. This team is top heavy and has some real depth issues in my opinion.
Elk Grove Spartans
Record: 3-1
Points Scored Rank: 4
ESPN Playoff Chance: 70%
Confidence Level: 10/10
Strength: I believe this is the favorite in the FFC West and one of the stronger rosters in the league. I love how this team was constructed and there is depth at QB, RB and WR unlike I’ve seen on any other team. This is by far the deepest team in the league. So deep, they might have to write a tell-all book in Season 4 of The Boys. You might think it’s ridiculous to roster this many running backs on one NFL team, but let me tell you the Shanahanigans as they are known are very real. I love Damien Harris as a RB3 in our league’s scoring format and a great bye-week fill in. The top two dogs at receiver in Diggs and Cooks are as good as it gets. Doubs has been elevated to a strong WR3 candidate and he has high end WR2 upside as he develops more chemistry with Rodgers. When I build a bench I want high upside wide receivers whose value will only increase as the season progresses and I love George Pickens as a guy who fits that profile.
Weakness: It’s hard to pinpoint any positional weakness for this team. It’s an embarrassment of riches and the only challenge will be the weekly start/sit decisions.
The Underdogs
Sacramento Wolfpack
Record: 1-2-1
Points Scored Rank: 16
ESPN Playoff Chance: 20%
Confidence Level: 6/10
Strength: RB. This team is well equipped to handle injuries and bye weeks at the skill positions. When you have Chase Edmonds as a third running back and two stud running backs ahead of him, the Wolfpack are in a good spot at this position.
Weakness: QB and overall scoring output. To put it simply the Wolfpack have struggled to score and have massively underperformed in touchdowns especially from the running back. The two starting running backs, although talented, have only combined for one total touchdown (and it was a receiving touchdown) in the first four weeks. This team has had brutal touchdown luck and will need some massive boom games in the middle of the season to catch up into the wildcard mix and back into the divisional race.
Philippines Garbage Dumps
Record: 0-3-1
Points Scored Rank: 14
ESPN Playoff Chance: 8%
Confidence Level: 5/10
Strength: WR. This team attacked wide receiver aggressively at the right time of the draft and got some great talent and value throughout the draft. Tyreek Hill has been an absolute stud and shown he is both quarterback-proof and matchup-proof: he will have a huge year. Amari Cooper and DK Metcalf were both drafted at a discount and both have provided low end WR1 production which has been a nice surprise. This team also has DJ Moore on the bench and he is too talented to be kept down by Baker Mayfield. I think this team has four excellent receivers and some valuable trade assets to bolster the other positions.
Weakness: Starting off with zero wins in the first four weeks in a stacked division with two of the strongest teams is putting yourself in a very tough position. I have to say the weakest position of this roster is definitely quarterback. Matt Ryan has not had a second wind with the Colts that I thought could elevate the Colts to a contender in the AFC South.
FFC North
The Favorites
Pool of the Dead
Record: 4-0
Points Scored Rank: 2
ESPN Playoff Chance: 84%
Confidence Level: 10/10
Strength: What you’re looking at here is another near perfect roster. QB, RB and WR is all stacked and the bench is filled with incredible backups. Jared Goff is QB5 on the year and a valuable trade asset. Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Freiermuth and Hamler are all amazing bench stashes at the receiver position and can probably be flipped for some running back depth help if needed or the Pool can just rely on 4-WR sets during bye weeks for Penny or Jones. I think the core strength of this team is the Higgins-Burrow stack has proven to be extremely profitable so far in helping this team to start 4-0. Another strength you have to mention is this team is 4-0 in the division and has the 2-0 season series over what looks like the second best team in the division which is a huge advantage this early in the season.
Weakness: Losing Javonte Williams has thinned out the running back depth but luckily Rashaad Penny is a high end RB2 and fantastic replacement.
Isla Sorna Raptors
Record: 2-2
Points Scored Rank: 7
ESPN Playoff Chance: 47%
Confidence Level: 8/10
Strength: This is an incredibly well rounded starting roster and I think the strongest asset is the running back depth. Khalil Herbert has shown to have RB3/flex value even when Montgomery is healthy and in Montgomery’s absence he has vaulted to a high end RB2 who will get a large volume of work in the Bears offense. Confession time but I prematurely wrote off Derrick Henry as a huge red flag player before this season, but he has proven me wrong and destroyed the last two matchups including the #3 DVOA run defense Colts with back to back 20 point weeks. Not to mention, Henry has seen increased receiving volume this year which is a huge plus and the only hole in his game in past years. I think Etienne, Carter and Allgeier are all high value backups with a defined role in their offenses and one injury away from being startable.
Weakness: I like the starting receiver group but the truth is they have underperformed with the exception of Chris Olave. Juju is ranked outside the top 60 at receiver and Diontae Johnson is ranked outside the top 40 which is not what I expected coming into this season. They both came into the season with more projected involvement in their offenses but it has been inconsistent in the first four weeks.
The Underdogs
Jedi Knights
Record: 1-3
Points Scored Rank: 11
ESPN Playoff Chance: 23%
Confidence Level: 7/10
Strength: WR depth. Completing the trade for Keenan Allen only boosts what was already a strength in the Jedi Knights’ receivers. AJ Brown, Drake London and Keenan Allen can compete with any other teams’ group of receivers and having rookie stud Jahan Dotson as a WR4 is a great position to be in. While Hockensen had one massive game, I am more excited about David Njoku as a WR5 due to targets and elevated usage in the last three weeks.
Weakness: This is a good team, so how are they 1-3? Well they are in a tough division with two slightly stronger teams. The running back depth could be better. I like the starters fine, but Jonathan Taylor has underperformed, only cashing in one touchdown and one 10+ point performance in the first four games. Rachaad White is a good RB upside stash as somebody who can carve out a Tony Pollard-esque role in the Tampa offense and would be vaulted into high end RB2 territory if Fournette ever missed time with an injury.
Korriban Warriors
Record: 1-3
Points Scored Rank: 12
ESPN Playoff Chance: 21%
Confidence Level: 5/10
Strength: QB. Justin Herbert will need to have a massive career year to keep this team competitive in the playoff race. The injury to Rashawn Slater is a huge obstacle to overcome and it is going to be an uphill battle this season.
Weakness: The wide receiver situation is pretty rough after Mike Evans. Devin Duvernay’s inflated value in the first four weeks came from some great touchdown luck, but his route participation stat is alarming and I think he has a very low floor unfortunately. Tyler Boyd is a nice bye week fill in but it’s tough to justify starting him on a weekly basis. The reason the Warriors are in this position is because Darnell Mooney was projected to have a career year but has found himself on a prehistoric offense that passes the ball 10-15 times a game.
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