1.) The newly revamped Minnesota Vikings offense is a real contender in the NFC.
Buy. One of my greatest regrets this fantasy football season was not having drawn an envelope high enough to select Justin Jefferson in the first round. Jefferson was my #3 overall player heading into the 2022 season and #1 WR. In case you aren’t familiar, Kevin O’Connell is a protege of Sean McVay and has brought a pass happy 3-WR set offense that has completely revolutionized their offense. It’s about as hard a 180 turn degrees you can take from Mike Zimmer’s archaic dinosaur offense which built Dalvin Cook’s legacy as a fantasy RB. To think that Jefferson thrived in that offense and led the NFL history books for receiving yards in his first two seasons is remarkable. Now that the ceiling has been removed, Jefferson is clear for blast off. But he’s not going alone. Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith and K.J Osborn are all elevated by this offense that will terrorize defenses by moving Jefferson around the field, in motion and in the slot. Thielen, Smith, Osborn and Cousins will all smash their ADP this season and quite frankly, we should have seen it coming.
2.) Brian Daboll will turn around the New York Giants.
Buy. The one caveat being I don’t think Daniel Jones is salvageable as a signal caller but whatever this offense is capable of as a unit, Daboll will maximize it. The biggest benefactors of this will be Saquon Barkley and one receiver a game, hopefully long term it will be Kadarius Toney who is primed for a year 2 breakout. Toney’s usage was puzzling this week given every time he touched the ball, good things happened. Sterling Shepard had the long touchdown pass, but I think once this team incorporate Toney more into the fold that he will be a good WR3 in fantasy. Wan’Dale Robinson remains the unknown and it’s important to remember he was drafted by this regime. The star of Sunday was Saquon Barkley who dominated the box score stats: Per Mike Florio, Barkley was ranked 7th amongst the entire league in target share (on a list that was only receivers! See below), 18 carries for a week high 164 yards, 6 catches for 30 yards, and an 82% snap share count which is elite.
3.) The Cincinnati Bengals will have a huge Superbowl hangover.
Sell, with a caveat. After what looked like a disastrous five turnover start, Joe Burrow and the Bengals battled back in what became a close game. Although the offensive line presented some doubts in people’s minds, I think their matchup on defense was pretty tough and there was definitely some rust. Joe Mixon’s usage was insane: 27 carries and a career high 9 targets and took 27 of 28 running back carries. Mixon is poised for a huge year. While managers are worried about Higgins’ injury, I’m worried about Higgins for a different reason. For fantasy purposes, on average only 1 team a year supports two top fifteen wide receivers on the same team. Although both receivers were ranked as such, I think there are some strong contenders for this: Buffalo Bills, Minnesota Vikings, Los Angeles Rams, and the Los Angeles Chargers.
4.) Without Davante Adams, fade the Green Bay Packers offense.
Sell. Davante Adams’ absence certainly left a glaring hole in the Packers offense in a negative game script where they were playing catch up all day long. But this team is built different: a top 10 defense, two potentially top 20 running backs, and a bunch of unproven receivers running around the field for a consecutive two year MVP quarterback. There will be an adjustment period and I expect one of the rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs to emerge alongside Allen Lazard as fantasy relevant receivers. Matt LaFleur is a talented playcaller who will also get his running backs involved in the passing game and they will be fine. Remember what happened to the Packers last year in Week 1?
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