Entering the final week of the regular season, this is one of the most closely contested playoff races across the board. With two divisions up in the air in Week 14 and multiple teams fighting for essentially two out of the three wildcard spots (one of them is already locked down by who doesn’t win the FFC North between the Pool of the Dead and the Korriban Warriors), this will go down to the wire. There are a number of scenarios that can be played out for Week 14 and it’s a daunting task to wrap my head around all of these scenarios. I will do my best to highlight the most likely and simplest scenarios that could occur for playoff seeding in Week 14. For the wildcard spots, it becomes very complex. I am looking at teams like Lin Sanity, Wolf Pack, UPS, Jedi Knights and the Spartans as the teams with the most complex situations and clinching scenarios. I apologize if I miss anything but the truth is I can’t possibly wrap my head around all possible scenarios. So given that let’s jump right into it.
Playoff Bracket:
#1: Da Moon’s Huge Craters/Korriban Warriors
#2: Da Moon’s Huge Craters/Korriban Warriors/Pool of the Dead
#3: Gandalf the Goat/FFC West Winner
#4: Gandal the Goat/FFC West Winner
#5: Korriban Warriors/Pool of the Dead
#6: Open
#7: Open
The most contested spots will be the #6 and #7 spot where all “in the hunt teams” are eligible for spots
Clinched: Da Moon’s Huge Craters (Guaranteed 1 or 2 seed), Gandalf the Goat (Guaranteed Top 4 Seed), Korriban Warriors, Pool of the Dead
Eliminated: Philippines Garbage Dumps, Mahomie’s Deezflated Nuts, Dr. Jenious, Ernie’s Rubber Duckies, Bruce Almightys
In the Hunt: Lin Sanity, Sacramento Wolf Pack, Uur UPS, Jedi Knights, Elk Grove Spartans, Hot Pocket Hot Locket
Da Moon’s Huge Craters
-The Craters can secure the #1 seed and a bye week with a win OR a loss by both the Warriors and Pool of the Dead.
-Because the Craters have not played the Warriors or Pool head to head this season, any ties would go to a divisional record and then points scored.
-If the Craters lose, Warriors lose and the Pool win, the Craters will hold onto the #1 seed because they have divisional record superiority over the Pool of the Dead.
-If the Craters lose, Pool loses and Warriors win, the Craters and Warriors would be tied at a 5-1 divisional record and go to points scored where the Warriors hold a ~44 point advantage. Most likely in the latter scenario, the Warriors would take the #1 seed.
Korriban Warriors
-The Warriors can secure a top 2 seed and their division with a win in Week 14.
-If the Warriors win and the Craters lose, it is most likely the Warriors will win the #1 seed and bye week given they have a ~44 point advantage in the points scored tiebreaker against the Craters.
-If the Craters win and the Warriors win, the Warriors will be the #2 seed.
-The Warriors hold the head to head tiebreaker over the Pool of the Dead.
-If the Warriors lose AND the Pool of the Dead wins, the Warriors will drop down to the #5 seed.
Pool of the Dead
-The Pool of the Dead can not finish lower than the #5 seed entering the 2021 playoffs and can be higher than the #2 seed. Basically the only two options are #2 or #5.
-If the Pool wins AND the Warriors lose, the Pool will clinch the FFC North and a top 2 seed.
-It is impossible for the Pool to win the #1 seed because any ties with the Craters would go to the Craters who own the tiebreaker on divisional record superiority.
-If the Pool loses, they will be the #5 seed.
Gandalf the Goat
-The Goat is guaranteed a top 4 seed after clinching the FFC East in Week 13. The Goat can not be the #1 seed so is guaranteed a spot in the 2-4 range.
-If the Goat wins AND the Warriors and Pool loses, the Goat will be the #2 seed. The Goat has the head to head tiebreaker advantage against the Warriors.
-If the Goat loses, he can not finish higher than the #3 seed.
-If the Goat loses AND Lin Sanity wins, The Goat will be the #4 seed.
-If the Goat loses AND Lin Sanity loses and the Wolf Pack wins, it will go to a points scored tiebreaker in which the Goat has a ~47 point lead over the Wolf Pack.
-If the Goat loses AND Lin Sanity and the Wolf pack both lose AND the Spartans win the FFC West, the Goat will be the #3 seed.
Lin Sanity
-Lin Sanity controls their own destiny. If they win in Week 14, they will clinch the FFC West division.
-If Lin Sanity wins, they will either be a #3 or #4 seed depending on if Gandalf the Goat’s result. If Lin Sanity wins AND Gandalf wins, Lin Sanity will be the #4 seed. If Lin Sanity wins AND Gandalf loses, Lin Sanity will be the #3 seed because they win the tiebreaker on divisional record superiority.
-Lin Sanity plays the Spartans head to head in Week 14. If Lin Sanity loses AND the Wolfpack loses, there will be a 3-way tie for the division. Lin Sanity and the Spartans would both be tied 1-1 in the season series and have an identical divisional record so the tiebreaker would go to points scored. Currently the Spartans outscore Lin Sanity by ~15 points. But in this scenario the Spartans would have beaten Lin Sanity which means they maintain their score advantage and win the division. Lin Sanity would be in contention for a wildcard spot and be in a good position with a 4-2 divisional record.
-If Lin Sanity loses AND the Wolfpack wins, the Wolf Pack would win the division with the best record.
Sacramento Wolf Pack
-The Wolf Pack can not finish higher than the #3 seed.
-If the Wolf Pack wins AND Lin Sanity loses, the Wolf Pack would win the division. In this scenario if Gandalf the Goat loses, the tiebreaker would go to points scored. Currently the Goats lead the Wolfpack in points scored by ~47 points. Most likely the Wolf Pack will finish as the #4 seed in this scenario.
-If Lin Sanity wins, they will win the division no matter what.
-If Lin sanity wins AND the Wolf Pack wins, the Wolf Pack would be in a good spot in the wildcard race with a 8-6 record and a 4-2 divisional record.
Uur UPS
-UPS can not finish higher than the #6 seed.
-UPS has the head to head tiebreaker over Lin Sanity and the Spartans but loses the head to head tiebreaker against Wolf Pack.
-If the UPS wins AND Jedi Knights wins AND Lin Sanity Wins AND Wolf Pack loses, UPS will be the #6 seed. This scenario also holds true if Jedi Knights lose AND Lin Sanity loses (assuming Wolf Pack wins).
-If the UPS wins AND Jedi Knights wins AND both Wolf Pack and Lin Sanity wins then there would be a three way tie for the #6 spot which would go to Wolf Pack and put UPS at the #7 spot.
-If the UPS wins AND Jedi Knights wins AND Wolf Pack win AND Lin Sanity loses, UPS owns the head to head tiebreaker against Lin Sanity and would claim the #6 spot.
-If UPS loses, it becomes a lot trickier to forecast.
Jedi Knights
-The Jedi Knights can not finish higher than the #6 spot.
-The Jedi Knights have the head to head tiebreaker against Lin Sanity, Wolf Pack, Spartans, Hot Pocket Hot Locket which is a great advantage. Unfortunately a 1-4 divisional record and being near the bottom in points scored will bust them in most three plus team tiebreakers.
-If the Jedi Knights win AND UPS wins, it will depend on the result of the FFC West race for seeding. In this scenario if Wolf Pack wins the division and Lin Sanity loses, the Jedi Knights will make the #6 seed.
-If the Jedi Knights win AND Uur UPS loses AND Wolf Pack/Lin Sanity loses, the Jedi Knights will be the #6 seed.
Elk Grove Spartans
-The optimal path for the Spartans to make the playoffs would be to win the division. If they defeat Lin Sanity AND the Wolf Pack loses in Week 14, there will be a 3-way tie where all teams would be 4-2 and it would go to a points scored tiebreaker. Currently the Wolf Pack has a ~2 point lead over the Spartans. The Spartans have a ~15 point lead over Lin Sanity.
-If the Spartans lose, they are eliminated from playoffs.
-The Spartans lose the head to head tiebreaker against Uur UPS and the Jedi Knights which does not bode well for wildcard tie breakers.
-If the Spartans win AND the Wolf Pack wins, the Wolf Pack wins the division. In this scenario the Spartans could be in the wildcard hunt requiring losses by both the Jedi Knights and UPS. This would force a three team tie in which the Spartans would win with divisional record superiority. However if it falls to a two team tie breaker in either scenario, the Spartans would lose out.
Hot Pocket Hot Locket
-HPHL is eliminated from the playoffs if they lose in Week 14, therefore all scenarios listed below are assuming HPHL wins in Week 14.
-HPHL has the head to head tiebreaker advantage over UPS but lose the head to head tiebreaker against the Jedi Knights.
-If forced into a three plus team tie with any other 7-7 teams, HPHL would be in good shape with a 4-2 divisional record. Forcing teams like Wolf Pack, Jedi Knights, UPS, and Spartans to all lose would put HPHL in the #6 spot.
-Unfortunately as one of the lowest scoring teams, any tiebreakers going to points scored would be lost by HPHL who are outscored on the season by every other team still in the hunt.
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