As we head into the final four weeks of the regular season, the playoff races are heating up. Although no team has clinched yet, the playoff picture is starting to form and the division leaders who have held on strongly all season long continue to do so with some opportunities for clinching scenarios to present themselves coming up. With two divisional games coming up, many close division races can still swing and the three way tie for the FFC North will be resolved. Some teams will fall out disappointed and others will rise. This week we will look at some of the contending teams in the race and who will be their biggest X-factor coming down the stretch (impact player, the boom half of the boom or bust candidates) and my updated confidence ratings for each squad. Just as a reminder the confidence rating is a 0-10 scale factoring in variables such as roster strength, overall potential/ceiling of the team, current standing, tiebreakers and points scored.
The Favorites (Tier 1)
This tier consists of two dominant teams with the strongest grip over their divisional races (Craters and Goat) and the two teams who I believe to have dominant rosters (Warriors and UPS).
Da Moon’s Huge Craters
Points Scored Rank: 3
ESPN Playoff Chance: 98%
X-Factor: Saquon Barkley
Confidence Level: 9/10 (+1)
Notes: Will Saquon Barkley play another game in the 2021 season? If he returns and can put up just a few quality RB1 weeks, that elevates this team from one of the favorites to the definitive favorite. With an incredible supporting cast of Joe Mixon, Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett, Jaylen Waddle and Mark Andrews, this team is stacked to make a second championship run. With a strong start, this team should finish as the FFC South division champ and are vying for the coveted first round bye.
Gandalf the Goat
Points Scored Rank: 8
ESPN Playoff Chance: 99%
X-Factor: Rashod Bateman
Confidence Level: 10/10
Notes: A healthy returning David Montgomery will give this team a much needed boost to pair with Darrell Henderson to round this out as arguably the best or second best roster in the league. I think with the QB, RB and WR 1 and 2 positions all set with studs, the X factor really becomes will Rashod Bateman provide consistency. So far the rookie is tracking well and looks like he will be a great breakout player next year with some added chemistry. But his impact in the playoffs will just a little bit of gravy on top of this championship roster.
Korriban Warriors
Points Scored Rank: 2
ESPN Playoff Chance: 89%
X-Factor: Javonte Williams
Confidence Level: 10/10 (+3)
Notes: With two vertical upgrades in receiver in Cooper Kupp and Ceedee Lamb, this is now my favorite team to win the championship in 2021. Pairing this elite talent with the most reliable running back asset of 2021 in Jonathan Taylor along with betting on Russell Wilson’s return to his normalcy is probably the safest bet you can make in the playoffs. The only question mark resides at the RB2 spot and with Miles Sanders’ uncertainty down the stretch, I expect Javonte Williams will be integrated more into the gameplan and whether he can score touchdowns in the final two months of the season can drastically swing matchups for this squad.
Uur UPS
Points Scored Rank: 5
ESPN Playoff Chance: 60%
X-Factor: Ryan Tannehill
Confidence Level: 9/10 (-1)
Notes: The only question mark on this team is inconsistent QB play and that’s the only thing holding them back all season long. It’s clear with Darnold’s benching that this team is ride or die on Tannehill producing at a consistent 15-25 point per game range to keep this team at a dominant scoring average. All the skill positions are set it and forget it and amongst the best in the league. The only thing that knocks a point off the confidence level is this team is currently ranked #9 in the power rankings and will need just one other team to mess up to open up the opportunity for playoffs.
The Contenders (Tier 2)
This tier consists of four teams all in the mix for their divisional race and are in a strong position to get a top four seed with many outs to get in as a wildcard as well with legitimate championship aspirations.
Sacramento Wolf Pack
Points Scored Rank: 6
ESPN Playoff Chance: 83%
X-Factor: Terry McLaurin
Confidence Level: 7/10 (-1)
Notes: With three of their worst four scoring performances in the last month, the Wolf Pack have showed signs of vulnerability and are tied in a ultra competitive race against Lin Sanity and both teams are neck and neck in points scored. It’s hard to trust Courtland Sutton and Brandon Aiyuk on a weekly basis, so my X-factor has to be Terry McLaurin. If McLaurin can make the jump to elite (currently ranked WR18) and put up some monster weeks in the home run stretch, that will be the best opportunity to upset some of the Tier 1 teams in the playoffs.
Lin Sanity
Points Scored Rank: 7
ESPN Playoff Chance: 65%
X-Factor: Mac Jones
Confidence Level: 7/10 (0)
Notes: It’s hard to pick an X-factor on a team filled with so many boom-bust receiver options, but at this point you have to rely on them as steady contributors because we are approaching do or die territory. This team needs some consistency at the QB position and in order to qualify as an X-factor, there has to be some risk involved so I think the team will roll the dice with the Big Mac. Like the Wolfpack, this team is locked in a close race and it’s hard to pick a clear winner between the two teams so it will come down to some crucial November and December games including the big Week 13 rematch against the Wolf Pack.
Jedi Knights
Points Scored Rank: 12
ESPN Playoff Chance: 69%
X-Factor: Leonard Fournette
Confidence Level: 7/10 (+4)
Notes: Despite winning six in a row, the reality is this team is filled with inconsistent players with great upside and all of them have contributed at different times over the course of an impressive win streak to get this team into the playoff hunt. I think with the MCL injury to Aaron Jones, this team is going to rely on Playoff Lenny who has shown in stretches with positive game scripts he is capable of being a low end RB1. With only four touchdowns scored on the year, he leaves a lot to be desired in goal to go situations and some big touchdown games late in the season will make all the difference.
Pool of the Dead
Points Scored Rank: 1
ESPN Playoff Chance: 89%
X-Factor: Antonio Brown
Confidence Level: 6/10 (-2)
Notes: The Pool of the Dead have a strong advantage of amassing a huge points scored lead in the beginning of the season. I’ve cooled off this team the most out of all the Tier 1 and 2 teams. Losing Derrick Henry and having very little depth behind him will contribute to that. I think for this team to have a run at the championship, this will have to turn into an all out aerial assault with Tom Brady keeping his QB1 status and feeding Antonio Brown down the stretch. In just five games played this season, Brown has already established he is a top target of Brady’s with three games over 15 fantasy points and four touchdowns in five games. A returning Antonio Brown could be the ultimate weapon for the Pool to make a strong comeback.
The Wildcard Hopefuls (Tier 3)
This final tier represents the long shots of teams who are not mathematically eliminated but have shown some flashes of being able to beat good teams and if on a run, could be a dark horse underdog competitor.
Elk Grove Spartans
Points Scored Rank: 10
ESPN Playoff Chance: 10%
X-Factor: Kenny Golladay
Confidence Level: 5/10 (-1)
Notes: James Conner has been rock solid. Christian McCaffrey already has sky high expectations as the #1 overall pick in fantasy football. This team will need to find solid contributors at the receiver positions outside of Diontae Johnson. I believe Kenny Golladay is the most talented receiver left on the roster with the highest upside. Despite only playing half the season so far, Golladay is ranked #11 on average targeted air yards at 13.6 yards per attempt which shows he is targeted on deep routes and has that big upside.
Dr. Jenious
Points Scored Rank: 14
ESPN Playoff Chance: 7%
X-Factor: Darren Waller
Confidence Level: 4/10 (0)
Notes: It almost seems too obvious to say Patrick Mahomes is the X-factor because he is being asked to do so much it’s almost a given he has to be exceptional the rest of the season to give this team any miniscule chance of making the playoffs.I also like this team’s running back situation with the acquisition of Cordarrelle Patterson and the rise of Michael Carter to complement James Robinson who has been consistently great when healthy. The big question mark is who will rise up to the occasion at the wide receiver spot: and to go with the homerun pick I think it has to be Darren Waller. Waller, who was targeted 19 times in Week 1, has only exceeded 8 targets one other time this season. Waller’s numbers have to sky rocket to Week 1 status to give this team a shot.
Bruce Almightys
Points Scored Rank: 4
ESPN Playoff Chance: 11%
X-Factor: DeAndre Hopkins
Confidence Level: 5/10 (-2)
Notes: It’s funny this team is a few yards away from being 5-5 and lookin really good in the wildcard spot but here we are. I think taking on a Cousins/Thielen/Marquise Brown package for Ceedee Lamb and Cooper Kupp was fair but definitely drops the overall ceiling of this team by a bit. Having consistent QB play in Cousins will be a welcome sight and I expect Nick Chubb to return to action soon and continue to be the beast he always is. Now the question is who can replace the value lost by Kupp and Lamb? That has to be DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins has had a decent season so far but has not really had an explosive game since Week 1 when he went over 20 fantasy points. With some good matchups coming down the stretch, it will be incumbent for Hopkins to elevate this whole receiving squad.
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