This year I wanted to put a different spin on the annual “State of the Divisions” outlook after the first quarter of the season is over and we have enough data to make an honest assessment of the rosters and provide some updated projections moving forward into the middle weeks of the season. With four divisional games in the books, we have arguably passed the most significant portion of the schedule with four out of six divisional games played and many tiebreakers established. We all know rosters will look very different in the final two games of the division when the last two divisional games are played, tiebreakers are decided, and playoff seeding scenarios are on the table. Injuries, free agency and trades will still play a major factor in changing the outlooks on all sixteen teams and their standings in the division. Today we will focus on looking at the statistics of the first four weeks of the season including overall record and standing in the league in respect to points scored as well as the new ESPN provided stat of playoff percentage chance. To evaluate the future outlook I’ve provided my own “confidence level rating” on a 0-10 scale, factoring in strength of roster, overall potential as well as the aforementioned statistics. I’ve also provided some notes and analysis for my opinion on how the rest of the season will shake out.
FFC North
The Favorites
Korriban Warriors
Record: 3-1
Points Scored Rank: 4
ESPN Playoff Chance: 57%
Confidence Level: 7/10
Rest of Season Outlook: I’m a little concerned about Miles Sanders diminishing role to Kenneth Gainswell especially on passing downs. The upside for Jonathan Taylor without Marlon Mack (trade rumor) provides incredible opportunity for a true workhorse top 5 finish even with the presence of Nyheim Hines. Beating the Pool of the Dead twice in the first four weeks is an incredible advantage to have at this point and the Warriors should be considered the odds on favorite to run away with the division.
Pool of the Dead
Record: 2-2
Points Scored Rank: 1
ESPN Playoff Chance: 87%
Confidence Level: 8/10
Rest of Season Outlook: King Henry seems to be the most reliable surefire asset in fantasy football. While Josh Jacobs has been injured and underperforming when healthy (no game over 40 yards rushing this season), his touchdown upside and defined role as a goal line back in a strong offense will present good opportunities for the rest of the season to bounce back. Tom Brady also has an opportunity to play with the most talented receiver group of his career, coming off a superbowl with second year continuity and a worse defense (which gives opportunity for more passing) which makes him an incredible value in fantasy this season. This is the highest scoring team after a month and that stat can’t be ignored: this team is a juggernaut and they are for real.
The Underdogs
Ernie’s Rubber Duckies
Record: 2-2
Points Scored Rank: 5
ESPN Playoff Chance: 32%
Confidence Level: 7/10
Rest of Season Outlook: I think when comparing rosters this team is one step below the Warriors and the Pool, however there is one important scheduling note: the Rubber Duckies still get to play the Warriors and Pool one more time each and are only one game back of the division lead. Trading away Stefon Diggs is not something I would have done, but I can understand frustration with a slow start. Deebo Samuel’s breakout third year has him at WR3 after a month and Trey Lance’s presence may provide even more upside. The biggest upside of this team is Kyler Murray having an MVP season and as long as he is healthy and in the line up this team has a chance.
Jedi Knights
Record: 1-3
Points Scored Rank: 15
ESPN Playoff Chance: 6%
Confidence Level: 3/10
Rest of Season Outlook: With a rough 1-3 start to the season, the Jedi Knights are in last place in a strong division with three top 8 teams, all of whom are in the top 5 of scoring. There could possibly be three playoff teams from this division and the Jedi Knights may have to turn to the dark side of the force to turn this season around. A.J Brown’s injury really hampered the first four key divisional games so his return as well as Laviska Shenault’s elevation (with a DJ Chark injury) will be the keys to turning this season around.
FFC South
The Favorites
Da Moon’s Huge Craters
Record: 4-0
Points Scored Rank: 2
ESPN Playoff Chance: 96%
Confidence Level: 8/10
Rest of Season Outlook: Starting 4-0 in one of the stronger divisions is no fluke and it’s time to start evaluating this team as a Superbowl contender. I think trading back to 16 and getting the combination of Joe Mixon and Saquon Barkley was a fantastic move to swing for the fences and this team may have hit a homerun there. Tyler Lockett and Chris Godwin are both ranked in the top 20 and have opportunities to jump even higher with elite QB play. The Craters have beaten every one in their division but are still being chased hard by a couple of strong teams. While I think other teams are stronger at certain positions, this team is incredibly well balanced in the starting lineup.
Uur UPS
Record: 2-2
Points Scored Rank: 3
ESPN Playoff Chance: 41%
Confidence Level: 10/10
Rest of Season Outlook: This is top to bottom the best roster in the league by a considerable margin. How many teams can honestly look at their first four round draft picks and think “I absolutely nailed that pick”. I don’t think anyone can except for this team because almost every single player has panned out and exceeded expectations. DJ Moore is another elite breakout WR candidate that every team covets in the third and fourth rounds of drafts. I believe trading away Amari Cooper for Stefon Diggs was a strong improvement and yet the most amazing part about this team is the strong assets on the bench. Darnell Mooney, who I raved about with the potential of Justin Fields, has started to look the part in his Week 4 performance and Cordarelle Patterson is currently the #3 ranked RB in fantasy and may soon acquire the coveted RB/WR eligibility on ESPN. This team is set for blast off and it will take a gigantic, colossal comedy of errors to keep this team out of the playoffs.
The Underdogs
Dr. Jenious
Record: 1-3
Points Scored Rank: 14
ESPN Playoff Chance: 15%
Confidence Level: 4/10
Rest of Season Outlook: This is a very tough division and I think the doctor has the worst path to playoffs. It’s always challenging to build a team around a first round quarterback selection, even when that quarterback is Patrick Mahomes. James Robinson’s elevation in usage was encouraging but this team needs one more player to step up and elevate as a consistent anchor. The best candidate for that position is newly acquired Darren Waller who is on pace for 170 targets this season and will see the volume needed to meet that expectation and elevate this team.
Bruce Almightys
Record: 1-3
Points Scored Rank: 9
ESPN Playoff Chance: 11%
Confidence Level: 7/10
Rest of Season Outlook: This is one of the more mind bogging records after four weeks. Bruce who I had pegged as a division contender with an incredible roster, has underperformed through the first four weeks and unfortunately is in a massive hole being down 0-2 in the season series to the division leading Craters so there is no opportunity to make up that deficit without a lot of extra help. This team is incredibly stacked with talent so it’s hard to explain what happened except that pointing out inconsistent performances and subpar QB play. While Cooper Kupp has been an absolute revelation this season, players like DeAndre Hopkins and Ceedee Lamb have cooled off after a hot start in Week 1 and are not producing as consistently as we thought in the pre-season.
FFC West
The Favorites
Sacramento Wolfpack
Record: 3-1
Points Scored Rank: 6
ESPN Playoff Chance: 62%
Confidence Level: 8/10
Rest of Season Outlook: This is another very well put together squad and the record backs up the data after four weeks. Jalen Hurts year 2 breakout has him ranked at QB4 after the first month of the season and he has shown incredible value in both positive and negative game scripts this season. Usually it’s hard to nail two picks back to back in the first two rounds with running backs but Elliott and Swift, both ranked in the top 15, have produced and contributed to a great start. I am only worried about Brandon Aiyuk but again with the new variable introduced into the equation, Trey Lance, there is still opportunity for a bounce back.
Lin Sanity
Record: 3-1
Points Scored Rank: 7
ESPN Playoff Chance: 63%
Confidence Level: 7/10
Rest of Season Outlook: This team has incredible upside with arguably the most elite group of receivers in the league and the greatest chance at challenging for the division lead. While the upside is much higher with players like Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans and DK Metcalf, I think this team has a lower floor than the Wolfpack and Spartans and will rely on boom/bust performances throughout the season to capture a playoff berth. Damien Harris has been another model of inconsistency but this team has some great high value handcuffs like Alexander Mattison and Damien Williams who can step in during injury weeks and provide top 20 value on a week to week basis.
Elk Grove Spartans
Record: 2-2
Points Scored Rank:12
ESPN Playoff Chance: 51%
Confidence Level: 6/10
Rest of Season Outlook: I can’t count this team as an underdog because of their performance in Week 4 to tie up the season series against the division leader Wolfpack, so it’s fair to say they are a strong contender. The injury downside of the running backs puts this team a little lower than the Wolfpack and Lin Sanity but the return of a healthy Christian McCaffrey can quickly flip this narrative. Diontae Johnson returned from injury recently and was immediately plugged back into a massive target share in Week 4 (13 targets in Week 4, on pace for 148 targets this season).
The Underdog
Philippines Garbage Dumps
Record: 0-4
Points Scored Rank: 16
ESPN Playoff Chance: 1%
Confidence Level: 2/10
Rest of Season Outlook: I really loved this team in the pre-season as a contender in the division but we have to face reality. This is the bad luck injury team of 2021 and is plagued with so many injuries it’s almost impossible to dig out of an 0-4 hole at this point without a massive roster overhaul. Just to recount the injuries for this team, we have the following players injured currently on the roster: Tua, Will Fuller, Raheem Mostert, Jimmy Garoppolo, TY Hilton and players such as Dalvin Cook and Tee Higgins returning after missing time. How can any team realistically overcome this much injury in such a short time during all divisional games?
FFC East
The Favorites
Gandalf the Goat
Record: 3-1
Points Scored Rank: 8
ESPN Playoff Chance: 78%
Confidence Level: 9/10
Rest of Season Outlook: The defending champion is definitely the strongest team in the East after the first month of the season. Despite a 4-5 week injury to star RB David Montgomery, I think this team has an incredible bench to manage these injury weeks and really dominate in the middle part of the schedule as other teams struggle to fill in bye weeks while this team will have Rondale Moore and touchdown machine Zach Pascal on reserves and players like Rashod Bateman and Michael Thomas coming off IR with an immediate role in their respective offenses. This team is incredibly well drafted and managed so far and a back to back repeat champion is extremely realistic and on the radar at this point.
Hot Pocket Hot Locket
Record: 2-2
Points Scored Rank: 13
ESPN Playoff Chance: 21%
Confidence Level: 6/10
Rest of Season Outlook: While I really liked this team after the draft, there have been some shaky inconsistent players that really capped the upside of this team to compete against Gandalf the Goat. Losing the season series 0-2 to the Goat will be a tough hurdle to overcome especially since I see the defending champion’s team getting even stronger during bye weeks. This team also has some great quality depth and free agent pickups like Alex Collins and Khalil Herbert who should have some value during bye weeks and the recently acquired Allen Robinson was a great gamble buy-low opportunity to see if Justin Fields can get Robinson out of this funk in the beginning of 2021.
The Underdog
Mahomies’ Deezflated Nuts
Record: 1-3
Points Scored Rank: 11
ESPN Playoff Chance: 31%
Confidence Level: 5/10
Rest of Season Outlook: I had this team pegged as a wildcard contender and not a division contender because I think the bench depth and fall off at receiver would eventually catch up. I don’t believe that’s entirely the case because Michael Pittman and Tyler Boyd have stepped in and showed some flashes of being quality WR2 and WR3 guys. Pittman has 32 targets over the last three weeks after a slow Week 1 and his increased target share will translate into touchdowns soon which will shoot up his rank. It’s hard to count out a team with a good GM who has only finished under .500 once in his entire career.
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