Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The season opener turned out to be an electrifying shootout going to the last drive where Tom Brady once again led a game winning drive. Both pass offenses were sharp and hosted some great fantasy performances from Amari Cooper, Ceedee Lamb, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski as well as both quarterbacks. The volume of targets between Lamb (15) and Cooper (16) both rank inside the top 4 across the entire league in Week 1. As the Cowboys were committed to a pass heavy attack in Week 1, this offense has proven it can sustain two top 10 receivers this season.
Tampa Bay’s run game looks to be a full blown committee. It’s even difficult to assess their next gen stats because nobody qualified with the required minimum 10 carries to see who performed the best on advanced analytics. My biggest question going forward is how will Tampa Bay’s offense look when they’re not in a shootout against another elite passing offense like Dallas? If neither running back is able to separate themselves from the pack this will be a difficult backfield to navigate season long.
Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts
Russell Wilson led all signal callers with an impressive 10.4 intended air yards per attempt. The biggest benefactor of this is very clearly Tyler Lockett who had two long touchdown catches. While I expect Seattle to have a very balanced attack going forward, Wilson is surrounded by two top ten receivers including a second year DK Metcalf who has unknown upside at this time and did not figure much into the gameplan this week.
The Colts gameplan did not hold up well against Seattle as their run heavy and elite defense carried them to great success in 2020. Zach Pascal caught two touchdowns from Carson Wentz and currently sits on the waiver wire. Jonathan Taylor led the backfield with 60% of the snaps but Nyheim Hines has carved out a nice role for himself with 6 receptions and 40% of the snap count reinforced by his new 3 year deal with the team. Taylor’s upside is limited as long as Hines is on the field on 3rd downs.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
I was not able to catch much of this game but Brandin Cooks was top ten in target share and top five in targeted air yards which is a combination for a big fantasy day. As long as Cooks can stay healthy he will provide consistent WR2 production and be a nice high floor high ceiling combination as Houston looks to be trailing in most of their games this season.
It’s always difficult to assess a rookie quarterback’s debut performance and how the offense will flow so I think Jacksonville is a wait and see situation. Marvin Jones as many anticipated would be the most reliable Jacksonville receiver and best fantasy value out of the gate, so we’ll continue to monitor the receiver timeshare.
Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons
The battle of the birds featured two rookie pass catchers looking to become elite fantasy options, both drafted in the top ten; Devonta Smith the Heisman winner versus Kyle Pitts hailed by many as the best football player in the 2021 draft. Jalen Hurts and Devonta Smith passed the eye test in a favorable opening matchup.
Mike Davis was one of two active running backs on game day and commanded an impressive 80% snap count. Even though his production was nothing to write home about, the volume is present for Davis to break out and exceed his draft value in the third round as an under the radar work horse back. Keep your eye on Cordarrelle Patterson who was lining up as both receiver and running back and looks to be like the gadget guy for this offense. He has good upside and warrants a flier on the bench.
Los Angeles Chargers at Washington Football Team
A low scoring affair featuring a lot of fantasy receivers and all eyes were on the second year Justin Herbert facing his toughest defensive assignment to date. While Austin Ekeler was relatively quiet on the ground with just 57 rushing yards its important to recognize this was probably his hardest matchup of the season and he faced an 8+ man box 47% of the time (which ranked third highest for all running backs in Week 1). Ekeler’s incredible offensive utility and efficiency as a dual threat and his touchdown salvaged the day and he will be in line for a monster season as this offense’s ceiling elevates with Herbert’s progression.
Washington suffered a loss at quarterback as Ryan Fitzpatrick went down early and the return of Taylor Heinicke now raises questions about the upside of the passing attack for players like Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel (IR) and Logan Thomas. This situation is difficult to get a read on without more sample size.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
This was a low scoring game that really showcased Pittsburgh’s elite defense locking down an elite offense and the floor of Buffalo’s offense. The stat that jumped out to me is Najee Harris commanded 100% of the snap count at running back and no other running back saw the field for Pittsburgh. No other running back had 100% in this category so this volume upside will be Christian McCaffrey level. Chase Claypool is one of the most exciting year 2 breakout candidates this year and has a nose for the endzone. Diontae Johnson’s team high ten targets is an early indicator that Ben Roethlisberger’s established chemistry (144 targets in 2020) will create an opportunity for a top ten finish and Johnson’s ascension to elite WR status.
It’s hard to really dismiss Buffalo’s offense in Week 1 but the defensive effort by Pittsburgh was suffocating for Josh Allen and company. One notable absence was Zack Moss who I was high on in the preseason as a strong RB3 high ceiling option with many goal line opportunities on a high powered offense. There were reports that his off season surgery and recovery still lingers as a question mark in his gameday availability so continue to monitor that situation. Expect a strong bounce back for the whole offense in Week 2. I want to buy into this Buffalo offense any way I can for as cheap as I can.
San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions
This was the game I watched most closely this week. The most notable absences on San Francisco’s side was Trey Sermon (a healthy scratch) and Brandon Aiyuk only saw a meager 47% snap count after a disappointing pre-season mired with drops and being outplayed by Trent Sherfield. Likewise the absence of Sermon and injury to Mostert opened the door for Elijah Mitchell and JaMychal Hasty who both scored touchdowns and will be hot free agents entering Week 2 in fantasy.
The Detroit Lions overhaul has just begun but there are some great bright spots on the offensive side of the ball. Penei Sewell was the fifth highest graded tackle of Week 1 in run blocking and both D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams, who I loved before the draft, showed flashes of a high powered run game. While both backs had good days on the ground, they both shined in the pass offense recording 8 receptions each and both scored touchdowns (Swift through a pass reception, Williams on the ground). This is the key takeaway from this team as Detroit figures to be in negative game scripts and Jared Goff targeted his backs frequently for checkdowns.
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals
This was the only overtime game of the week. The visiting Minnesota Vikings host a number of highly drafted fantasy studs, most of whom disappointed in a tough loss. While one game is not nearly enough sample to establish trends, the biggest stat that jumped out to me was a -0.3 air distance on target to Justin Jefferson, who led the category in the entire NFL in 2020. Jefferson had a historically great rookie season at the position and was established as one of the elite deep threats in football, but was horribly underutilized in Sunday’s game plan.
Cincinnati was a fun team to watch in Week 1 as we got a glimpse of a future great offense in its infancy. Much panic was shared amongst fantasy football managers in the month of August as Ja’Marr Chase recorded five drops (including four consecutively) in the preseason. Chase shined in his pro debut recording 5 catches, 101 yards on 7 targets including a long touchdown bomb in a performance that highlighted his crisp route running and explosive athleticism. Chase was the fifth overall pick in the NFL draft in a stacked WR class that featured three receivers drafted in the top ten and will be a household name in many fantasy drafts for the next decade plus.
New York Jets at Carolina Panthers
There wasn’t much to take away from this game as the Panthers were not able to capitalize on a weak defensive opponent to showcase all their great fantasy options. The truth is that Christian McCaffrey will be the best running back in the league and completely independent of any limitations but the receivers will ultimately be capped by Sam Darnold. The Jets showed me the one thing I could predict in this offense: Corey Davis will be a volume monster and the only reliable option on that team as the Jets will continue to play from behind and have to pass it frequently. It’s too early to overreact and pronounce the Jets backfield a fantasy graveyard as I believe Michael Carter’s value only increases as the season goes on and the coaches and front office turn to youth as they look forward to the future.
Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans
The story of this game was Kyler Murray. All Titans under performed so there wasn’t much to take away from that side of the ball. Murray looks like he has taken his game to another level. The organization has made a strong point to surround him with great weapons, signing free agents AJ Green and James Conner and drafting Rondale Moore. When you invest in a high powered offense, you can sustain so many fantasy weapons but the primary benefactor is the orchestrator Kyler Murray whose rushing threat continues to elevate his league high QB1 upside. Since Sunday, Vegas has moved Murray’s odds to win MVP to second best in the whole league.
Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is poised to have a big year, both in NFL results and fantasy. The importance of continuity is on full display here as Patrick Mahomes enters Year 3 on a historical hall of fame pace with his leading pass catchers Hill and Kelce, massive improvements on the offensive line, and a year two leap of Clyde Edwards-Helaire who still has a long way to go before he reaches his ceiling in this offense. If you were able to buy into this offense in your fantasy draft, you will see incredible returns. Tyreek Hill exited Week 1 with the most yards, second highest in receptions, second highest in targets, but the most impressive stat is that Hill led his team with a whopping 73.5% share of his entire team’s air yards. To put that in reference the second place was Devonta Smith all the way down at 62%.
I had pegged Cleveland as an elite rushing attack and a team that plays defense and ball control grinding out the game. This is not really possible in a matchup against Kansas City so the Browns were aggressive early out of the gate. Baker Mayfield ranked #1 in Week 1 with 32% “aggressive” throws according to next gen stats indicating a clear game plan to combat Mahomes. We will see a much different Cleveland game plan moving forward as the schedule becomes much easier and Chubb and Hunt will become the focus of the offense.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
This matchup featured former teammates at Alabama Tua vs Mac Jones. For Miami, all eyes were on Tua Tagovoila entering his second year with new rookie playmaker Jaylen Waddle (receiving Tyreek Hill comps in the draft) and adding a dynamic deep threat would seemingly help Tua take the next step. Waddle looked solid but Tua was shaky albeit against a tough defensive assignment.
The Patriots looked to lean heavy on their run game with a rookie running back and some injuries to playmaker receivers. Rhamondre Stevenson was a flashy name in the preseason leading all running backs in the preseason in yards and he got worked in a little until he fumbled. Damien Harris also fumbled but had a productive day with 117 scrimmage yards including two receptions. The only real takeaway is that the Patriots still don’t trust a back other than James White to handle the load of passing downs in the backfield as he accounted for 37% of snaps on Sunday in a close ballgame.
Denver Broncos at New York Giants
Another terrible injury overshadowed this game as sophomore playmaker Jerry Jeudy suffered a high ankle sprain that has him sidelined for 6-8 weeks. Jeudy was one of my favorite year 2 breakout candidates to emerge this season but it looks like that may be delayed another season. Teddy Bridgewater looked like a clear upgrade over Drew Lock and established some chemistry with Tim Patrick even before the Jeudy injury. Patrick was in for about 70% of snaps (second amongst all receivers) and caught the only touchdown by a wide receiver. With his large 6’-4” frame, he looks to be the primary read in the redzone. I expect at the time of writing this that somebody will use their waiver priority for Tim Patrick but he is a must add in all leagues.
The only player who remotely interests me on the Giants was how Saquon Barkley will look after his ACL injury. After one week, the offensive line remains poor and this was a brutal matchup against the Broncos defensive line. Barkley failed to get anything going but I want to be patient and get a bigger sample size before I write him off for the season.
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (Played in Jacksonville)
Unfortunately I did not watch much of this game, and judging by the score it wasn’t much of a game. Jameis Winston led all quarterbacks in Week 1 with five passing touchdowns. Alvin Kamara looked amazing and had an unusually high carry amount which was interesting. It’s possible we are in line for a career year for Alvin Kamara who the offense will revolve around in the absence of Michael Thomas. Kamara only got three receptions which will be interesting to monitor as Winston loves to attack the downfield vertical pass which makes names like Marquez Callway and Deonte Harris interesting.
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams
The Sunday night marquee matchup showed the new Los Angeles Rams with Matthew Stafford running the show. To state the obvious, Stafford elevates the entire offense and showcases the true upside of Sean McVay’s playcalling. His favorite target throughout the game was easily Cooper Kupp who got a team high ten targets and converted it into 108 receiving yards and a touchdown. The other surprising stat was Darrell Henderson dominating 94% of the snap counts to Sony Michel’s 5%. In retrospect it makes sense because Michel was traded for late in the preseason but I believe these percentages will shift a little to make Michel more viable in this offense. But it was hard to argue with the results as Henderson looked the part of a workhorse back in Week 1.
Chicago is an interesting offense for fantasy this season because the real question is when Justin Fields inevitably takes over the team, how will that shift the focus of the offense? Fields big arm may benefit deep threat Darnell Mooney the most but it will be important to keep Allen Robinson and David Montgomery engaged as the best playmakers on the team. Speaking of Montgomery, he has started 2021 where he left off 2020 where he was one of the best running backs down the stretch of the fantasy playoffs last season. Despite only seeing 59% of the snaps (partially because of an injury that sidelined him for a portion of the game) Montgomery sizzled with 108 yards on just 16 carries.
Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders
Darren Waller is the only trustable receiver and looks to be on pace to match or exceed his insane 145 targets from 2020. Waller led the entire league in targets with 19 in Week 1! Waller’s target share and touchdown upside as the primary red zone target makes him a set it and forget it fixture in the starting lineup. Unfortunately tight ends are devalued a little in the BFFL format but the elite receiving options like Waller and Kelce still hold their premium market value.
The story of the Ravens preseason has been the brutal injuries to the running backs and figuring out the backfield as Ty’Son Williams was elevated to a starting role. Williams passed the test as a great runner but was shaky in pass protection leading to elevated snaps for Trent Cannon and Latavius Murray who split the other 50% of the load with Williams. However, Cannon was released Tuesday afternoon and with Devonta Freeman and Le’Veon Bell on the practice squad, this will be an interesting situation to monitor as all running backs are integrated into a more cohesive gameplan going forward.
Bali's Fantasy Football League 