BFFL Post-Draft Review

These are NOT the draft grades. To see the draft grades please view the great post contributed by Justin last week here: https://baliffl.com/2021/09/03/bffl-2021-draft-grades-by-justin/

This is just my first impression of all the rosters heading into Week 1.

FFC East

Gandalf the Goat

Strengths: I think paying up for Josh Allen is absolutely worth it this season. As he continues to evolve as a passer, maintains the threat of rushing for touchdowns, and has the great luxury of continuity from last season (same receivers, same coaches, virtually no drop off at all) he will be an MVP favorite and the leader in the clubhouse to supplant Mahomes as QB1 despite being picked twenty picks later.

Weaknesses: I think that losing out on a first round running back or receiver talent is a massive drop off that almost never makes trading out of the first round worth it. But this GM has proven to be a smart drafter in the mid to late rounds. Still though the lack of a stud running back will make this team an underdog at the running back position on a weekly basis.

My favorite draft pick: I don’t have a lot of confidence in this one but Ja’Marr Chase falling to [7.12] might be a strong overreaction a rocky preseason. Especially when he goes after names like Michael Pittman, Jarvis Landry and Curtis Samuel. This is a generation talent at wide receiver reuniting with his college QB in a strong receiver draft class. He may not present great value as a rookie but it’s certainly a risk worth taking to build your bench starting with Chase. Especially when you factor in how successful rookies have been lately at the receiver position.

Final thoughts: The defending champion made a lot of suave picks and built up a nice starting lineup and bench depth with some steals in Chase and Michael Thomas who may return to action and benefit from a gunslinger QB in Jameis Winston. This team will be active in free agency and the trade deadline and Casey has proven to be a smart and effective GM in those areas so this team will be a strong division contender.

Hot Pocket Hot Lockett

Strengths: A well rounded starting lineup and excellent RB depth makes this team a strong contender on day one. Starting drafts off with a receiver pick in round 1 always makes me a little nervous but Nic proves to be a smart GM complementing in rounds 2 and 3 with one of my favorite mid to late round 2 targets in Chris Carson and getting another high volume back in Mike Davis to shore up a great starting lineup. I love Jamaal Williams as the ideal RB3 bench option to come in and provide flex value when bye weeks kick in.

Weaknesses: It’s hard to pinpoint any glaring weaknesses on this team because I believe it was a very strong draft with a well constructed roster and a strong bench. This may be a nitpick but Justin Herbert may have been overdrafted by a round over some targets I like a little more (Prescott, Brady and Tannehill). I think Herbert has the greatest risk of that group of quarterbacks to “bust” for his ADP but given how impressive his rookie season was I can certainly buy the hype.

My favorite draft pick: I mentioned him earlier but Jamaal Williams [7.06] was my round 7 target before he got sniped in the middle of the round by this team. As the Lions look to be one of the worst teams in the league and in negative game scripts for most of the season, I love the opportunities for Williams as an excellent pass blocking and pass catching running back to provide great value as a startable RB2 in various spots throughout the season.

Final thoughts: This draft went about as well as one can hope with strong running back depth, a well rounded starting lineup and an exciting sophomore season for Herbert with an unknown ceiling for his talent. I think this team will be a strong division contender.

Mahomies’ Deezflated Nuts

Strengths: Trading for a second first round pick will give you access to two top ten players which provides an incredible advantage in a sixteen man league. Having a top four pick in Alvin Kamara and pairing with one of the most consistent elite fantasy players in Travis Kelce near the end of the round will provide a strong and reliable anchor to a fantasy team.

Weaknesses: Missing out on the second and third rounds hurts this team’s options at receiver where the position dried up. Boyd is a solid high floor WR3 but I’m not a fan of the receiver depth behind him. I think Pittman has good upside to be a third receiving option but missing out on the great run of receivers in the second and third rounds might haunt this team.

My favorite draft pick: Dak Prescott at [4.13] to me represented the end of the elite QB1 tier before there was a little bit of a dropoff. Obviously the biggest question with Prescott is his health and that was evident as he fell to the last QB picked in this round but with a plethora of receiving options and a strong running game he will have all the tools to finish as a top 3 quarterback in fantasy this season.

Final thoughts: Entering Week 1 I like the other two teams in the East a little more than MD Nuts. I think Alvin Kamara without Michael Thomas for approximately seven weeks will be heavily leaned upon in NFL and in fantasy to have a career year in terms of usage rate and fantasy production. This team has three great players to anchor the roster around and the rest of it can be improved with free agency and trades so I think with a couple more moves, this team can be a wildcard contender.

FFC West

Sacramento Wolfpack

Strengths: As always the Wolfpack attacks the running back position early and strong throughout the draft and the RB depth once again looks promising. Nyheim Hines and JD McKissic are about as good as it gets as fourth and fifth options off the bench as teams who occupy the sole pass catching duties on their teams and can have good flex value in bye weeks.

Weaknesses: After the starting receiver lineup, the bench is a little shallow for receiving options. Cole Beasley is currently the only bench wide receiver on the team. I do advocate a RB heavy bench in principle due to positional scarcity and stronger bench utility in short term options but this strategy will require a sharp eye on the waiver wire and seeking out startable receivers and tight ends in the event of injury and heavy bye weeks.

My favorite draft pick: Jalen Hurts at [6.12] is the obvious best value pick for me. When you wait on a quarterback in a deep league, the ideal candidate for quarterback is somebody like Jalen Hurts: a young unproven quarterback being drafted near his floor who adds a great upside with rushing.

Final thoughts: Running back running back is my default go to in fantasy football and a staple of this franchise’s draft strategy that resulted in a Superbowl appearance last year. I think overall the FFC West is a lot stronger this year and this team is a wildcard contender.

Philippines Garbage Dumps

Strengths: The running back group is strong and provides many great assets for a GM who loves to trade in season. Dalvin Cook will provide a huge advantage as a versatile high volume back on a run happy team and when you compliment that with Raheem Mostert as a solid #2 option and incredible bench options such as AJ Dillon and Devin Singletary who are high floor high ceiling bench options on good offenses, the sky’s the limit.

Weaknesses: Tua Tagovailoa as the starting quarterback is a high risk high reward option that can result in a deep playoff run or a crash and burn scenario in the middle of the season. Tagovailoa has looked incredibly sharp in preseason and is poised to take a considerable year 2 leap but with rumors swirling about a trade for Deshaun Watson it just adds an uncertainty about his situation throughout the season.

My favorite draft pick: I have two here and it’s hard to pick a winner. AJ Dillon at [6.15] is highway robbery. With a whopping 40% of the snap counts vacated by Jamaal Williams, Dillon is going to be immediately startable and present long term value through bye weeks and injury-riddled weeks. I am projecting somewhat of a return to a balanced offense in Green Bay which will open up more goal to go rushing opportunities and a big year for Dillon. I also love Robby Anderson at [5.12] who is criminally undervalued as a WR3 reuniting with Sam Darnold and should be poised to absolutely crush value.

Final thoughts: This team is well rounded and has the RB bench depth I covet after a fantasy draft. The biggest gamble here is the QB but you have to take some risks to hit homeruns in fantasy drafts. That’s how Patrick Mahomes won so many leagues in 2018. This won’t be Mahomes but a big year 2 jump will result in a deep playoff run for Tua and the PGD. I think this team is a strong contender to win the division.

Elk Grove Spartans

Strengths: Like many experts pontificated, Christian McCaffrey stands in a tier alone and he represents a gigantic advantage at the running back position on a weekly basis. The Spartans answered my question about how high Gus Edwards would be drafted after the season ending injury to JK Dobbins elevated Edwards to a more prominent role. They were able to handcuff both starting backs as well as get a solid bench option in James Conner who will provide good bye week fill in options as a reliable veteran on a good offense. Ty’Son Williams is a trendy name in the preseason to help with more of the pass catching duties in Baltimore but my only minor concern is the addition of a veteran running back may drop both backs’ values by a small amount.

Weaknesses: For the second year in a row, my biggest concern was a reach at the quarterback position. His touchdown pass percentage index (adjusted advanced passing stat, 100 is average) jumped up 45% from the last two seasons to a league high ridiculous 144% which is the second highest in his career after his other MVP season. I could be way off base but the numbers would suggest this team returns to a more balanced attack and we see the running backs elevated while the passing touchdowns regress a bit. Or since this might be his last year in Green Bay we might see an angry and motivated Rodgers similar to 2020.

My favorite draft pick: Diontae Johnson at [4.16] is the perfect receiver I would want after opening a draft going RB-QB-RB. Johnson is a volume monster with a colossal 144 target volume in 2020, he is poised for a year 3 breakout before entering the conversation as a top 10 receiver next season.

Final thoughts: The Spartans have historically done incredibly well with free agency. In 2020 they got RB1 production of a free agent Mike Davis for approximately half a season. When you have a track record of strong free agency and a solid draft, this team is a strong contender to win the division.

Lin Sanity

Strengths: I don’t think it takes a rocket scientist to figure this one out but when you start a draft off with four receivers in the first five rounds, you are committing to a certain approach. Lin Sanity will never be overmatched in receivers and Jerry Jeudy is one of my favorite breakout candidates of 2021 to take a massive year 2 leap.

Weaknesses: Again I think it’s pretty obvious but a zero RB approach in a deep league is going to leave you with extremely limited options at the running back position. I think Lin Sanity took a good gamble with Damien Harris in the 4th round but it’s hard to predict how that backfield is going to shake up with Rhamondre Stevenson having a very strong preseason. I do like Alexander Mattison as a high value handcuff who will jump into RB1 conversation if Cook misses time, but the starters leave a little to be desired.

My favorite draft pick: Alexander Mattison at [8.07] is about as good a mid round lottery ticket for a running back as it gets. His upside is immense in the absence of Cook and more importantly it is predictable and reliable RB1 production for a few weeks. 

Final thoughts: I think this is one of the few teams this season that will be rolling out 4 receiver lineups regularly and with big homerun hitters and touchdown makers at the receiver position, it’s going to be feast or famine season. I like a little more stability at the running back position so for now I think this is a wildcard contender.

FFC South

Da Moon’s Huge Craters

Strengths: Sometimes you just have to sit back and let the draft come to you. And that’s exactly what this team did in the first two rounds; two high volume backs with questions about injury history and inconsistent play but have league winning upside. There is no question that if Saquon Barkley was guaranteed for fifteen healthy weeks his draft stock would shoot up drastically. When you pair these two running backs with two receivers I love at the 3/4 turn in Godwin and Lockett, this team has a solid starting lineup.

Weaknesses: Having said that about the questionable reliability of the two lead running backs, I would have invested more in a strong running back bench with a couple of lottery tickets and double down on my high risk high reward approach. Tevin Coleman being the only running back on the bench may provide some early bench flex value but over the course of the season that Jets backfield is crowded and will turn to the younger backs.

My favorite draft pick: Tyler Lockett at [4.01] is probably one of the most surefire picks of that round to absolutely crush value. Lockett has finished as a top 11 receiver in two of the last three seasons and due to his boom/bust nature is constantly slept on in fantasy.

Final thoughts: Overall I think this draft went decent at the #16 spot but I would have liked a little more insurance at the running back position. I think this team is a wildcard contender.

Bruce Almightys

Strengths: Similar to last year, Bryce invested a lot of draft capital in the skills positions solidifying an incredible starting lineup and good depth and waiting on quarterback. I think this starting lineup is among the league’s best and the trio of receivers especially is second only to Marvin. Ceedee Lamb is primed for an astronomical year 2 leap and is probably the most hyped player in fantasy football this preseason. Cooper Kupp is about as good as it gets as your third receiver and will benefit from a massive quarterback upgrade in the offseason.

Weaknesses: Baker Mayfield showed some great flashes in 2020 as an accurate passer and dynamic orchestrator in a Stefanski led offense, but he also had six games under 10 fantasy points. While I believe this offense will be balanced and limit his ceiling I believe you are banking on a year 4 leap to keep him competitive against other teams at the QB position.

My favorite draft pick: Zack Moss at [6.09] is another one of my ideal third running backs to start building your bench on. With Josh Allen continuing to elevate as a passer and his recent 250 million dollar contract extension, there is a possibility some of his 8 rushing touchdowns from 2020 get converted to Zack Moss. Being the goal line back on this offense provides a high floor high ceiling scenario that is ideal to have as your RB3 so I love the pick.

Final thoughts: Not every team is afforded this luxury but Bryce is a great GM. He’s one of the very best in the league at in-season management with transactions and start-sit decisions and always finds a path to the playoffs. If Baker Mayfield plays anything north of average, this team is a strong contender in the division.

Uur UPS

Strengths: This team attacked receivers aggressively in the money rounds (3-8) and built up a strong lineup with good upside and some great bench options that may pan out and be usable as trade assets. Amari Cooper was a great value steal in the 4th round and Corey Davis in the 6th round presents a high volume option and my ideal WR3 with great upside. I love Darnell Mooney as a deep threat year 2 breakout in Chicago and could pair well with Justin Fields’ strong arm talent when he inevitably takes over the quarterback position there.

Weaknesses: I love opening drafts RB-RB and a late pick was the perfect spot to grab two of the last remaining RB1s in my rankings. Najee Haris and Austin Ekeler both provide top 5 upside with their ability as pass catchers who won’t leave the field on third down. I am however nervous about the bench depth behind these two with Malcolm Brown being the only bench option behind these two. 

My favorite draft pick: Corey Davis at [6.02] will go down as one of the biggest steals of the drafts and present a huge advantage over almost every other teams’ WR3. Zach Wilson has looked sharp in the preseason and Davis will be presented with the lion’s share of the targets in that offense that looks to have many negative game scripts this season.

Final thoughts: It’s a very strong starting lineup and Ryan Tannehill will benefit from the addition of Julio Jones to potentially have a career season. If running back health and depth is not an issue this is a strong contender for the division.

Dr. Jenious

Strengths: When you go quarterback first you are banking on an MVP season and a gigantic advantage at the position on a weekly basis. Who better to hitch your wagon to for that bet than Patrick Mahomes who is entering Year 3 of his young and decorated career with his dynamic receiving options and coaches returning and massive upgrades on the offensive line. It’s looking like a good bet.

Weaknesses: Seeing Michael Carter and Le’Veon Bell as the only bench running back options makes me nervous. I could see Bell being added to a team with a murky situation like Atlanta, Baltimore or Miami which would elevate him to a low end RB3.

My favorite draft pick: Marquez Callaway [7.09] is going to be immediately usable as a deep threat WR3 with the absence of Michael Thomas. If Jameis Winston keeps his starting job, a couple of deep passes will find their way to Callaway a game and he should be a good sleeper. The preseason was a good indicator of his value as a homerun hitter.

Final thoughts: This team has good flexibility at the receiver position and went receiver heavy in the money rounds (3-8) which I like to see. I expect this is a team that will go 4-WR heavy sets most of the season. The RB depth leaves a lot to be desired but you can’t discount any team with Patrick Mahomes considering a Mahomes-led team won the Superbowl last season. I see this team as a wildcard contender.

FFC North

Pool of the Dead

Strengths: This is one of the stronger starting lineups in the league. A top 3 pick affords a premium advantage at running back and opening up RB-WR-RB was ideal for a top 4 pick as it opens up the possibilities for a team to go with Derrick Henry, Justin Jefferson and Josh Jacobs which is about as good as it gets to open a draft. I’m also a fan of Sony Michel being the RB3 as a player immediately plugged into an elite offense with opportunities to blast his ADP value and be a startable RB2 by the middle of the season.

Weaknesses: Nothing too much to panic over but as a nitpick I would have preferred some better options for receiver depth on the bench. I generally avoid tight ends who are not elite receiving options but like Noah Fant as a sleeper.  

My favorite draft pick: Sony Michel at [7.03] is usually a player I would not care too much for in the past but the change of scenery makes him intriguing at this spot. Give me some names on high powered offenses in an unclear work distribution situation and roll the dice that your guy comes out on top.

Final thoughts: Great starting lineup with a solid third running back which is the foundation of my ideal bench. The bench depth after that falls off a little and I would feel safer with a fourth running back option. However I like this team to finish as a strong division contender.

Ernie’s Rubber Duckies

Strengths: Opening the draft with a receiver might open you up to a weak running back combination, but this team nailed the first three rounds in my opinion. Stefon Diggs steps right back into the same situation where he was the #3 receiver in fantasy last season. When you pair that with a Clyde Edwards-Helaire appropriately priced in the second round and Kareem Hunt I think this was a very solid opening to the draft. 

Weaknesses: Beyond the first four rounds, I’m not a fan of the bench options at receiver. Juju Smith-Schuster and Deebo Samuel are both good high floor but low ceiling options as players who don’t stretch the field and have a low air distance on target. Henry Ruggs is the exception to this and I believe he will be starting by mid-season for this team.

My favorite draft pick: Henry Ruggs at [7.13] and Kareem Hunt at [3.13] are tied for my two favorite picks. Ruggs fits the ideal second year WR that I covet during a draft and with a unique skillset of being a high speed burner, he has incredible upside for his value. Kareem Hunt represents the last RB2 I feel comfortable with before a massive dropoff at the position. Hunt has value with or without Chubb in the equation and his talent combined with the Browns run game scheme provides a floor/ceiling combination that is unmatched in this range.

Final thoughts: This is an exciting team with Diggs, CEH, and Kyler Murray. I have no idea if the lack of talent at receiver will hold this team back but for now I like them as wildcard contenders.

Jedi Knights

Strengths: I like the running back bench depth with players like Trey Sermon, Leonard Fournette and Rashaad Penny. There are opportunities for a breakout candidate to emerge out of those three to pair with Aaron Jones. I also do like the starting receivers quite a bit. AJ Brown was my last WR1 before a dropoff which is always a nice grab (I also had Jefferson ranked higher but he went later). Darren Waller received an absurd 145 targets for a tight end last season and is a lethal red zone threat so he’s a great WR2 candidate.

Weaknesses: There were a couple of rounds where I just think some of the picks were reaches and players were overdrafted by a round. It’s not really a big deal if you don’t think the player will make it back to you but there were just a couple of instances. I like LaViska Shenault as a year 2 breakout but I like Chase Claypool a little more. Trey Sermon is not a bad pick but in the 4th round I think he would have been available the following round.

My favorite draft pick: Jakobi Meyers at [8.11] provides great value for a bench option WR4 who will be immediately usable as a WR3 as a number option in the New England pass offense. I love to see great value picks like this where the player is almost guaranteed to crush his draft value and this is one of those scenarios.

Final thoughts: I’m not too worried about the QBs because I think out of Burrow and Lawrence, one of these guys will pan out or it can just come down to good GM management and playing the matchups. I like the team quite a bit and think this team is in contention as a contender to win the division.

Korriban Warriors

Strengths: I love the high upside receiver depth on this team. Players like Russell Gage, Brandin Cooks and Amon’Ra St. Brown offer great paths to being high volume first or second receiving options on bad teams that are pass happy at an extremely affordable price. This usually equals to finding draft steals which help with depth and providing assets for making a trade. Pair that with a strong 1-2 punch at running back in Jonathan Taylor and Miles Sanders and I think you have a strong recipe for success.

Weaknesses: No glaring weaknesses, but if I had to nitpick I’m not a fan of Adam Thielen in the 3rd round. I am predicting some touchdown regression for the receiver who had a career high 14 touchdowns and who had waning fantasy value dependent on touchdowns.

My favorite draft pick: Amon’Ra St. Brown at [14.06] is basically getting a lotto ticket for free at the end of the draft. I predict TJ Hockensen to be the primary pass catcher for this offense but St. Brown can carve out a nice role as this team figures into a lot of negative game scripts and playing catch up through the air.

Final thoughts: This is another example of a great GM who always just figures things out and ends up in the playoffs. The Warriors benefit from that little bonus so I put this team as a division contender.