After wildcard weekend, the defending champion has fallen and now it is guaranteed that a first time champion will be crowned at the conclusion of this tournament. Both division winners prevailed over the two wildcard teams and now we are down to the final four: the four winners of each respective division.
Quarterbacks
No amount of advanced analytics or matchup based analysis can change the outcome of this matchup. This is the one matchup the Goats have not lost all season long because simply they have the best player at the position, the best player in the league (as I argued at the end of the last season should have been drafted as a top 5 player this season) and the clear favorite in the matchup. The only real question is how far behind will Josh Allen be behind Patrick Mahomes in this matchup? Allen has been a little inconsistent and all over the map, but his high point games this week put him at QB6 coming into the matchup going against the QB1 in Patrick Mahomes. Looking at matchups for Mahomes is useless since I saw him shred the #1 Baltimore defense with the greatest of ease, so it’s safe to say he is excellent regardless of matchup. Allen will face an 18th ranked Denver defense who gave up a strong 20 point game to Bridgewater last week. This matchup is a slam dunk but the key will be if Josh Allen can keep it close, so advantage to the Goat.
Running Backs
This is where I believe Dr. Jenious is the strongest and has dominated opponents all season long but will meet a comparable opponent. I don’t know what award it is but James Robinson has to win some kind of award for what he has brought to the table bringing top 10 RB stable value all season long and especially during Nick Chubb’s injury period. Interestingly enough it looks like Kenyan Drake and Nick Chubb will get the start so it’s going to be matchup based play. Chubb has been a top ten running back on a points per game base and I have supreme confidence he will be the highest scoring running back of the game. Kenyan Drake also has entered top 10 RB value with three straight 10+ point games with consecutive scores. The Goat has relied on David Montgomery who has been red hot with three straight 20+ point games and JK Dobbins who has had three straight 10+ point games with three consecutive touchdowns. All four guys are absolutely red hot with good to great matchups and this is going to be a very close call but in the end I have to side with the talent and that is Nick Chubb and Dr. Jenious.
Wide Receivers
This is another area of strength for Dr. Jenious who despite the loss of Will Fuller is in a great position of strength with the #1 tight end who leads all pass catchers in passing yards in Travis Kelce. And on the other end you have DK Metcalf, the WR#3 and second highest passing yardage leader. This is another terrific head to head matchup. I think when you start looking at second and third receivers this is where the Doctor’s advantage grows stronger. I’m not so high on Keekee Coutee but Amari Cooper has been the most reliable Dallas pass catcher even in a terrible offensive situation. While Brandin Cooks has been inconsistent and difficult to predict, he has been on a bad streak of under 10 points for four straight games so now would be a great time to break the slump. Logan Thomas vs Kekee Coutee is a wash to me but the upside of Coutee because of the offense and quarterback would give him the edge. This is another razor thin match up that could swing any way and it’s extremely difficult to pick a winner but I think it’s hard to predict against Kelce for how consistent and dominant he has been all season so I will give this to the doctor.
Scoring Trends and Other Notes
While the Goats made an impressive late season surge to get into the playoffs and past the wildcard round, Dr. Jenious has been the highest scoring team of the regular season and had some of the most impressive scoring numbers in recent history.
Final Verdict
I believe Dr. Jenious has the best team left in this playoff race as evidenced by their high scoring outputs trending upward late into the season. While the Jenious is my favorite to win the entire tournament, my dark horse pick was Gandalf the Goat because he has the best player left and the X factor that can blow up any game with a monster performance. Mahomes has the capability of putting the team on his back for an upset victory but all the numbers would suggest Dr. Jenious should win this game 100-95.
Let me know what you guys think and what your official predictions for this fantasy matchup is.
Bali's Fantasy Football League 