After a tumultuous season filled with uncertainty, we have finally reached the goal of every fantasy season: the playoffs. As six teams enter the playoffs, we are left with only one returning champion (Bryce) and five GMs who look to cement their name in league history with a franchise first championship.
The #5 Bruce Almightys clinched their wildcard berth on a strong 8-5 record after starting off strong, building a strong string of three weekly high scorers and slowly cooling off as the season ended losing three of the last four games of the regular season. The #4 Sacramento Wolfpack won the division on the most exciting final game clinching scenario in a head to head situation (which was basically the first playoff game since it was do or die for both teams) and won the division with a strong divisional record of 5-1 but only winning 2 games outside of the division, starting off and finishing off strong but slumping in the middle weeks. These two teams did play a game in Week 9 this year in which Bruce Almightys delivered a rout with a final score of 109.1 to 50.3. I think it’s safe to say as these teams both enter the playoffs, this result will be a little closer, so let’s go to the positional breakdowns.
Quarterbacks
One of the few teams to truly flex a quarterback weekly depending on matchups, and having success with it, was the Bruce Almightys who made a mid-season trade to acquire Jared Goff and have been alternating between Goff and the drafted starter Teddy Bridgewater. As I write this the projected starter is Teddy Bridgewater who will face the 17th ranked Denver defense. Bridgewater has been hit or miss all season but has generally performed well in favorable matchups. However the added variable this week is DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel are both on the COVID list which will be two huge losses for the week. The Wolfpack have started Matthew Stafford all season long until they made the change to Kirk Cousins last week in a critical must win game (and had to watch as Stafford outscored him on the bench) but look like they will return to the gunslinger Matt Stafford in this week’s matchup. Stafford will face the 11th ranked Green Bay defense, a team he has already played this season in which he racked up 244 passing yards and 2 touchdowns. Despite not having his top receiver Kenny Golladay for seven weeks this season, Stafford remains the 12th ranked fantasy QB and has found value in his secondary weapons such as Marvin Jones and TJ Hockensen. Although both teams are far from elite quarterbacks with great matchups, I have to give the slight QB advantage to the Wolfpack.
Running Backs
This matchup is where Bruce Almightys shines, because he has the most reliable and productive running back in all of fantasy football: Dalvin Cook. Cook enters a brutal matchup against the 2nd ranked fantasy TB defense (ranked 2nd against the run) but enters as the #1 ranked fantasy running back of the season. This will be a great matchup to watch the unstoppable force against the immovable object. As it stands it looks like Bruce will run the 4 receiver set which leaves Cook as his only running back in the game which looks like the correct decision. The Sacramento Wolfpack have struggled to find consistency at the running back position all season long after extended injuries to both Saquon Barkley and Chris Carson. With Carson returning to full health recently and having one of his stronger games of the season in Week 13, and the emergence of Wayne Gallman as a solid RB2 (double digit scores in six straight weeks) the Wolfpack are sitting in a serviceable position at running back and enough to compete with most teams. Not having a reliable second running back may hurt Bruce in future matchups this season but it’s hard to not give the running back edge to the most valuable running back in fantasy this season so this one goes to Bruce Almightys.
Wide Receivers
This was the strongest part of the Wolfpack all season and really carried the team through difficult divisional matchups: the wide receivers. Two of my favorite wide receiver prospects at the beginning of this season were Stefon Diggs and AJ Brown and both have panned out to become fantasy stars this season. Diggs enters the matchup as WR9 facing the 10th ranked Pittsburgh defense, Brown enters as WR15 facing the 28th ranked Jacksonville in a great matchup and the third receiver is Marquise Brown who has struggled along with the overall passing offense of Baltimore but will see a great upside matchup against the 27th ranked Clevelend defense. That’s about as good as it gets for receivers for my money. Bruce’s best weapon Adam Thielen enters the matchup as WR5 going against the 24th ranked TB defense (24th against the pass) and no other receivers ranked in the top 30 at the position. It will definitely be a matchup based play but as it stands, Bruce will go with Jarvis Landry (against 3rd ranked Baltimore), Michael Gallup (against 20th ranked Cincinnati) and Sammy Watkins (against 13th ranked Miami). Gallup and Watkins have been unreliable and flashed only a few times so either one is due for a big game to help Bruce to win this game. As it stands currently I think the wide receiver advantage goes heavily to the Wolfpack.
Scoring Trends and Other Notes
On the season, Bruce Almightys finished with an impressive average score of 87 points per week. The Wolfpack on the other end ended with a mediocre 74.6 points per week. Over the last three weeks, both teams have averaged the same amount (roughly 75 points per week) while trending in opposite directions. Bruce has already won the matchup in the season before, but it’s a completely different set of circumstances this time. The Wolfpack have not shown the ability to win games consistently outside of the division but have never looked stronger than the last couple of weeks to end the season with the semblance of a competitive full roster. Bruce will also have a distinct advantage with the #3 ranked fantasy defense in Indianapolis who has scored five defensive/special teams touchdowns on the year. I usually don’t like to factor in defenses to the overall matchup comparisons because D/ST scores can be volatile and difficult to predict, but Indianapolis appears to provide a distinctive advantage at the defense position. You also have to factor in Bruce won the entire tournament last season despite coming in with the lowest scoring average of any team and basically looked like a first round exit but hung around to put on arguably the greatest playoff run in league history. You can’t ever count out a champion who has instinctively made the decisions to reach two Superbowl games and win one. On the other hand the Wolfpack have also reached two championship games but are still looking for their first victory in the big game. This will truly be a great wildcard matchup.
Final Verdict
I just believe the teams are trending in opposite directions and the Wolfpack have never been stronger than they have looked over the final two weeks of the regular season. I believe talent, matchups and health will all push the Wolfpack to gain a victory by a razor thin margin over the Bruce Almightys by a score of 82-80.
Let me know what you guys think and what your official predictions for this fantasy matchup is.
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