Eliminated Teams
Let’s start this article by crossing off all ineligible teams who have already been eliminated from the playoffs. This list of teams includes:
-Lin Sanity
-Uur UPS
-Team Banana Boat
-SLAM BALL 2K20
-Pool of the Dead
-Da Moon’s Huge Craters
-Whit-ie the Trash Bag
With seven crossed off teams that leaves just the nine remainders. Of the six playoff spots, only two spots have been clinched entering Week 13 and they are the two top seeds.
Playoffs Clinched
Korriban Warriors: Guaranteed #1 seed despite any possible outcome in Week 13. The Warriors will lock down the top seed, secure the first round bye and match against the lowest remaining seed in the semi-finals round of the playoffs. The path to a championship is only two more wins away for the Warriors
Dr. Jenious: This team won the FFC South after a pivotal Week 12 matchup against Bruce Almightys and will win the division regardless of the outcome of Week 13. Regardless of outcome Dr. Jenious can’t move from the #2 spot because they own the head to head tiebreaker over the Goats and would own the divisional record tiebreaker over the Spartans (since they did not play head to head) and these are the only two teams that can match their 8-5 record IF they lost in Week 13.
The Wildcard Favorites
Coincidentally the two heavy wildcard favorites are from the same divisions as the two clinched spots written above. Bruce Almightys and Ernie’s Rubber Duckies with a 7-5 record going into Week 13 can clinch a playoff spot with a victory regardless of anything else that happens in Week 13. If both teams win Bruce would be the #5 seed and Ernie would be the #6 seed because Bruce has the head to head tiebreaker. If Ernie wins and Bruce loses, Ernie would be guaranteed the #5 seed and Bruce would be forced into multiple tiebreaker scenarios depending on who else ends up at 7-6 with a 3-3 divisional record.
In any three+ team tie Bruce is set up the best of all teams because they lead all teams in this possible situation (Bruce, Ernie, PGD, Spartans, Goats) on points scored but would lose a divisional record multi-team tiebreaker against MD Nuts. With two wildcard spots, Bruce mathematically has the most outs to getting a wildcard spot.
On the polar opposite end, a tiebreaker going down to points scored would be the kiss of death for Ernie’s Rubber Duckies who lag behind all other teams who would be in the hypothetical 7-6 record with a 3-3 divisional record. Losing this week would open the door to be potentially jumped by three teams potentially which would be a disaster. The Rubber Duckies do have the head to head tiebreaker against the Spartans so a two team tie between both of would give the nod to the Rubber Duckies. This scenario would mean Bruce wins, Goats win, MD Nuts lose, PGD lose and Spartans lose which is the only way this scenario reaches fruition. But the trump card is always just winning the Week 13 game and clinching the good old fashioned way.
FFC West
The division with the most teams in play in Week 13 is the wild wild West. Only two teams can win the division and they are playing against each other in Week 13: the Spartans vs the Wolfpack. The winner of the match will take the division and the 3 or 4 seed depending on who wins. If the Spartans win they will be the #3 seed no matter what because they would beat the MD Nuts on superior record (this assumes the Goats loses) and they would beat the Goats because of the head to head tiebreaker. The Wolfpack can not do better than the #4 seed because of the two outcomes in the east: If the Wolfpack and the Goats win, the Wolfpack will be the #4 seed and the Goats would be the #3 seed (superior record). If the Wolfpack and MD Nuts wins and Goats lose, the Wolfpack would be the #4 seed and MD Nuts would be the #3 seed (H2H tiebreaker). If the Wolfpack lose the match they are guaranteed to be eliminated from the playoffs.
If the Spartans lose the match they are not necessarily eliminated from the playoffs and could be wildcard contenders but would need some help. Let’s go with the assumption the Wolfpack win the match: that would put the Spartans at 7-6 with a 3-3 divisional record. With two wildcard spots up in the air, they would need losses from Bruce Almightys and Ernie’s Rubber Duckies as well. The Spartans lose the head to head tiebreaker to the Duckies so if it is between just the two of them the Spartans would be edged out. In any three team+ scenario (which could include Spartans, Bruce, Duckies, PGD, Goats or MD Nuts depending on who doesn’t win the division) it would come down to a divisional record which would go to MD Nuts (who would be 4-2 divisional record in this scenario) but again this is contingent on both Bruce and/or Ernie losing their Week 13 matchups. The rest of the teams in that mix would be a 3-3 divisional record and it would come down to points scored at which the Spartans are lagging behind Bruce by a substantial margin (~130 points), the Goats by a large margin (~50 points) and leading all other teams after that. The clearest path for the Spartans is obviously winning the division in their head to head matchup but in the case of the 7-6 logjam of teams it would be advantageous for Bruce, Ernie and MD Nuts to lose and they would be in a good shot to grab the #6 seed.
The PGD can not win the division and have an outside shot at the wildcard. All scenarios are obviously contingent on a PGD win and loss by Ernie and/or Bruce. For them the clearest path would be for an Ernie, Bruce, MD Nuts and Wolfpack loss (the Wolfpack loss would give the Spartans the division and remove a team from the wildcard competition) and have it go down to a points scored tiebreaker in which they would beat out Ernie but lose to Bruce and have a shot at the #6 seed. Do a high discrepancy in the points scored against Bruce, the #5 seed seems unlikely. If Ernie wins, Spartans win, Goats win, MD Nuts lose and Bruce loses this would be another advantageous spot for the PGD who have the head to head tiebreaker over Bruce and would get the #6 seed. The smaller the field gets PGD will hope to force a two team tie with Bruce in which they are strong but would be significantly weaker in three+ team ties going to a points scored scenario.
FFC East
If Gandalf the Goat wins the Week 13 matchup they win the FFC East division. They can also lose and win the division if the MD Nuts also lose in Week 13. The MD Nuts can only win the division by winning in Week 13 and also having the Goat lose. If the Goats win the division, their seeding would be dependent on who wins the FFC West. If the Spartans win the Goats would be the #4 seed because they lose the head to head tiebreaker. However if the Wolfpack win the Goats would be the #3 seed because they hold the better record outright. In the scenario in which MD Nuts wins the division they would also take the #3 seed if the Wolfpack won the West because of the head to head tiebreaker. MD Nuts would be the #4 seed if the Spartans win because they lose outright on record. If MD Nuts loses, they are eliminated from the playoffs completely because they have no wildcard hope. If both teams win, Gandalf would win the division and MD Nuts would be in the wildcard mix.
For the first scenario let’s look at the Goats in the wildcard. If the Goats lose and MD Nuts win (and take the division), the Goats would have some outs in the wildcard race. The best path to a wildcard scenario would be forcing a head to head tiebreaker priority seeding over Ernie’s Rubber Duckies. The Goats have the head to head tiebreaker over Ernie’s Rubber Duckies so forcing any two team tie (which only results by Bruce winning, Spartans winning, and PGD losing) would be advantageous for the Goats obviously. Any three+ team tie of 7-6 teams with a 3-3 divisional record would go to a points scored tiebreaker where the Goats lag behind Bruce by a substantial margin (~80 points) but lead all other teams in this hypothetical category. The only significant head to head tiebreaker the Goats lose is against the PGD but that scenario is impossible because either Bruce and/or Ernie could win or lose. A win by both teams makes this a moot point, but a loss would force at least a three team tie in any scenario where the Goats and PGD are also 7-6 with a 3-3 divisional record. So in reality, the Goats are set up pretty nicely. The Goats are strong in most realistic wildcard scenarios so they are set up nicely with multiple paths to the playoffs but obviously the best way would be to win the division as the wild card scenario comes with some risk (like Bruce and Ernie both winning).
For the second scenario let’s look at MD Nuts in the wildcard. If both Goats and MD Nuts win their week 13 matchups, the Goats would win the division and MD Nuts would be in the wildcard mix (contingent on Bruce and/or Ernie losing). With a 4-2 divisional record in this scenario they would win all three+ team ties because everybody else would be 3-3. Their head to head tiebreaker losses to both Spartans and PGD are insignificant because it would be impossible for this to be a scenario (see above section where Bruce and Ernie would force the situation one way or the other). Points scored is not important to MD Nuts at this stage because the best scenario would be for Ernie and Bruce to lose and to take the #5 spot on divisional record. The second best scenario would be one of these teams lose and they would win a head to head against either team (because they didn’t have a head to head matchup so it would default to divisional record) or any three+ team tie (again on divisional record superiority). Similar to Gandalf the Goat above, the MD Nuts would be set up pretty nicely but again it comes with some risk as they need help from Bruce and/or Ernie.
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