FFC South
As the only 4-0 team in the league, Dr. Jenious is sitting in the most comfortable position of all teams especially when you consider they have the 1-0 tiebreaker against the second place Bruce Almightys. Both teams are ranked in the top 3 (Jenious at 2 and Bruce at 3) in total points scored which makes them both strong playoff contenders early when you combine that with their great divisional record. At the beginning of this season I projected Dr. Jenious to be the division winner and UPS to contend for the division in 2nd place. Dr. Jenious looks like the best team in the league so far and has the best roster top to bottom. With the injury to Nick Chubb, it will be interesting to see how Amari Cooper will fare vs Jonathan Taylor on a points per week basis and make you wonder if they traded the wrong running back away. Bruce Almightys has risen to take that #2 spot and the most important factor for their season will be managing quarterback play to stay at a high scoring clip. But you can’t really doubt the defending champion and if anyone can make Teddy Bridgewater a Superbowl QB, it’s this team. Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook have been fantasy superstars both ranking within the top 5 at their position in the first four games of the season. Being the high scorer two out of four weeks is not a fluke and this team is a lot stronger than initially projected.
After making two good trades which basically turned Amari Cooper into DeAndre Hopkins and picked up a couple of pieces I really like (Justin Jefferson, Russell Gage and TJ Hockensen) I really love UPS’ roster when fully healthy. The problem has been playing in a tough division with two of the three strongest rosters and facing three of these high scoring opponents early in the schedule. As the season goes on UPS will become a much stronger team in contention and can make up some ground with quality depth players like the ones I listed above. The Craters have looked a couple steps behind the other teams in the division all season long and have been blown out three out of the four games with last week’s matchup being the closest game against the #1 ranked Dr. Jenious. Losing close games is one thing but being behind in the scoring on the season total by 100+ to two of the three division rivals is a bad sign. Obviously this team was hit with bad luck with the Leonard Fournette release post draft and losing Courtland Sutton for the season which may be too much to overcome.
Important tiebreakers: Dr. Jenious is 1-0 against Bruce Almightys in the season series. They will play their next game in Week 12.
FFC West
The wild wild west is once again a three horse race as it was most of last season. With two teams sitting at 3-1 and the PGD right on their heels at 2-2 (while having the most points scored in the division) this will be a tough division to project at this early point of the season. Originally I projected the Wolfpack to be the division winner and to be one of the two best teams in the league (currently in first place in the division). Managing their injuries and getting back some key guys like AJ Brown and Allen Lazard will be the key to maintaining the current pace, but it will be challenging without the explosive upside of a first round running back like Saquon Barkley. One of the teams that I was lower on after the draft was the Spartans: my biggest concern being the lack of running back depth. The Spartans have done an outstanding job attacking the waiver wire to replace injuries to Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman and gotten solid RB production out of Jerick McKinnon and Mike Davis. While these are temporary placeholders, fantasy football is a week to week game and sometimes patching together free agents to win the weeks is what makes a great GM and the Spartans have two of them. If you ever think a team’s fate is solidified after the draft, I would point you to how the Spartans have started off as one of the strongest teams in a stacked division.
I figured the PGD to be a strong wildcard contender citing them as having the best running back depth in the league and that has paid off in dividends with the ascension of Kareem Hunt. Trading away a shaky quarterback for another solid RB2 in David Johnson was a genius move which only helps solidify a war chest of trade assets of the most important position in fantasy football: running backs. With players like Kareem Hunt and Cam Newton hitting in the middle rounds, it’s safe to say I would not be shocked if this team won the division and I think that’s the most likely outcome as we venture into the bye weeks and depth becomes more important. There’s no mistake about the problem for Lin Sanity: it has to be the slow start for Kenyan Drake. Drake has only scored over 10 fantasy points one time this season which is in qualified bust territory for the #17 overall pick. I love the receiver depth but again it’s been riddled by under performing stat lines from Cooper Kupp and DJ Moore. In terms of talent I don’t think they are vastly outclassed by the other teams in the division but the slow starts in divisional games is a deep hole that will be difficult to climb out of.
Important tiebreakers: The Wolfpack have the 1-0 series lead against the Spartans but the PGD have the 1-0 series lead against the Wolfpack. The Spartans have already won the season series 2-0 against the PGD. In Week 12 the Wolfpack will match up against the PGD and in Week 13 it will be Spartans vs Wolfpack. Make no mistake about it, this division is going down to the wire and there is strong potential for three playoff teams in this division.
FFC North
This is one division I was way off in my projections. I forgot to factor how dominant Stan has been in the league and has a winning pedigree of constantly being in the mix for playoffs and division titles within the FFC North. The resurgence of Aaron Rodgers as an MVP candidate was something I did not foresee, but should not be shocking given how well he plays with a chip on his shoulder. When you factor in this team has Austin Ekeler and Davante Adams out with injuries, this is going to make the next couple of weeks interesting for the Rubber Duckies to overtake the division lead. One of the most heavily scrutinized players in football will be Tom Brady whose decline may have been exaggerated. While Brady’s advanced analytics show a proclivity to pass shorter to running backs and tight ends (ranked 5th in pass attempts but outside of top 10 in air yards passed), he has still found a great chemistry with Mike Evans in goal to go situations which benefits the Rubber Duckies. While we discussed the Warriors’ injuries, one thing flying under the radar is the Duckies are also awaiting the return of a nuclear weapon: Michael Thomas aka the first receiver taken off the draft board this season. These two teams are clearly the class of the division and it will be interesting to see whose depth and health has the advantage over the next couple of weeks. While the Warriors are 6th in total points scored, the Rubber Duckies are 12th which gives the slight edge and the tiebreaker to the Warriors.
My initial division winner Team Banana Boat is currently sitting in third place in the division and does not have as attractive a roster as I saw on draft day. I think the trade to Carson Wentz may have been necessary given how wrong I was about Daniel Jones taking a step forward this year after showing flashes as a rookie. Daniel Jones was unplayable and costing the team wins so I understand the move but moving David Johnson hurt the team in another way to the point where I am not sure it was a net positive move. At 2-2 and just one game behind it is too early to concede this team is out of the race but I think when you factor in they are 15th in the league in points scored, it’s clear they have a lot of work to do moving forward. It’s hard to write off any team at this point but the Pool of the Dead have not gotten any momentum going and are ranked dead last in points scored. Similar to Tom Brady, Brees is showing signs of clear decline. Brees is ranked dead last in average air yards intended at only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. His numbers are coming from YAC and the game breaking elusiveness of Alvin Kamara after the catch. I would not be surprised to see Roethlisberger be named the starting quarterback unless Michael Thomas can respark some of Brees’ old magic upon his return. It’s not fair to point out the Pool’s lack of scoring without noting that Julio Jones has been injured and laboring with hamstring issues in three out four games and is not trustworthy to finish a game without extensive rest.
Important tiebreakers: With the Warriors and Duckies splitting the season series 1-1 in the first four weeks, points scored will be a huge point to consider for both teams as the season progresses. Currently the Banana Boat is 0-1 to both Warriors and Duckies which does not bode well for the division title but will get rematch opportunities in Weeks 12 and 13 to possibly contend for a top 4 playoff spot.
FFC East
After four weeks it was really dawning on me that Mahomies Deezflated Nuts might be the greatest fantasy team I’ve ever seen assembled in a 16-man league. Every major pick has been a homerun so far: QB1 in Russell Wilson, RB2 in Aaron Jones, WR2 in Tyreek Hill and WR11 in DeAndre Hopkins. Being #1 in points scored and having the record to show for it is all the formula for a high playoff berth and MD Nuts looks like they are continuing off a great couple of seasons of success with a championship in 2018, #1 seed in 2019 and ranked as the #2 team overall after four weeks in 2020. I started writing this before the trade executed to Uur UPS so it’s hard to evaluate the team’s makeup without seeing a game, but with three of the four starters listed above all ranked inside the top 2 at their respective positions, it’s clear this team is going to be a force once again. This team has been the epitome of #LetRussCook and completely steamrolled opponents with only one misstep along the way against newcomer Nic. Speaking of the new guy, he has really shown his fantasy chops after taking down the juggernaut in Week 4 and being the #5 high scoring team in the league in the first quarter of the season. Matt Ryan has supported my argument for his incredible fantasy value because of the high volume of pass potential that exists: 4th in passing yards, 3rd in average completed air yards and 3rd in pass attempts. Alvin Kamara has been one of the most slept on first rounders this season and has probably raised his ADP to top 3 if the draft were held over again out-scoring every other running back in the league. I had projected both of these teams as strong wildcard contenders and it’s clear both teams are much better than I had projected initially.
After a disappointing tie, the Goats find themselves two games back of the division lead and it’s unclear if the tie will be a gift or a curse when it comes down to tiebreaker scenarios. This team has rostered a lot of injured people so seemingly they will improve their scoring as the season goes on and they get back some key players such as Deebo Samuel and Le’Veon Bell. I wasn’t high on this team after the draft because of the running back selections but Devin Singletary has shown great value in Moss’ absence. While being 11th in points scored this season, the Goat is also 2nd in points scored against this season which is indicating the second highest strength of schedule played so far. As the Goats get outside of the division and play some other teams, we will get a better idea of if this is a playoff team or not.
Important tiebreakers: MD Nuts and ODB have tied the season series 1-1 in the first quarter of the season which puts the importance on points scored at the end of the season. Currently MD Nuts is the league leader in points scored averaging 109 points per game and New guy Nic is fifth in total points scored averaging just under 94 points per game.
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