BFFL Week 2 Report

Injury Report

The NFL has successfully gone two weeks without a positive COVID test and that has been one of the greatest surprises this season given the challenges I’ve seen in baseball and non-bubbled sports. However that did not save the weekend from a large volume of high profile injuries that have shifted division battles and provided significant setbacks to rosters. One of the biggest challenges of this season was building enough quality depth on your bench to account for COVID and the lack of pre-season and unfortunately that has reared its ugly head in Week 2.

Saquon Barkley: ACL, out for the season
Christian McCaffrey: High ankle sprain, estimated 4-6 weeks
Cortland Sutton: ACL, out for the season
Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman: Sprained MCL (Mostert), Ankle (Tevin Coleman), estimated 2-6 weeks
Additional Injuries with unclear length of time missed: Will Fuller (hamstring), Davante Adams (hamstring), Breshad Perriman (ankle), Parris Campbell (PCL), Tyrod Taylor (chest), Cam Akers (ribs)

Amongst the bloody Sunday the most high profile injuries noted 1-5 above included season ending injuries to the #3 overall pick Saquon Barkley, a multi-week injury to #1 overall pick Christian McCaffrey, multi-week injuries to both Spartan running backs Mostert and Coleman and a slew of other injuries with no clear timetable of return at the time of writing this. The loss of Barkley hurts the Wolfpack who I had projected as one of the top teams at the end of this season and completely opens up the FFC West. Starting off 2-0 for the Spartans will have to either employ heavy wide receiver sets or look to free agency or trades to acquire another running back to replenish the hurt backfield of Mostert/Coleman. Another one of my projected favorites UPS suffered two running back injuries to McCaffrey and Akers and that shoots up my projection for Dr. Jenious to finish as the heavy FFC South favorite. There are also some unclear injuries and implications such as Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers and their effect on Darrell Henderson. If I have Henderson rostered, I am thrilled but the long term outlook is a little muddled given my expectations for Cam Akers this season.

Some names you should be familiar with

For this section I wanted to point out some players that aren’t household names yet but will be at the end of this season. With a small sample size, it’s hard to project out their role given injuries, matchups and game scripts. Certain statistics give me optimism they are all prime breakout candidates for 2020. They will all provide a lot of value given most of them were late round fliers or even free agents.

1.) James Robinson: In Week 1 we saw Robinson have the 8th highest snap rate percentage amongst all running backs at 68%. While that number declined in Week 2, it’s important to note the carries remained the same and his receptions increased by two. Once you removed Leonard Fournette and Ryquell Armstead from the equation, the running back situation in Jacksonville did not look appealing but Robinson has taken the lion’s share of the work and turned into an exceptional free agent pick up and usable RB2 in our format. One thing to monitor is Robinson’s usage in positive versus negative game scripts (aka playing with a lead vs playing catchup). Both games have been relatively close and the team relied on Robinson.

2.) Russell Gage: Gage has at least 7+ targets in his last 11 games dating back to last year. This year he is the 9th most targeted receiver through the first 2 weeks and even leading teammate Julio Jones. Receiver value is mostly volatile predicting touchdowns but the most valuable parameter we can use is targets and it’s clear that Gage is getting enough to raise some eyebrows. Atlanta’s air offense is amongst the most dynamic in the entire league but can this offense sustain four good receivers (including tight end Hayden Hurst)? It’s inevitable for big letdown games for all four receivers with Gage being the most obvious candidate. However recent history is trending positively for him and it’s worth a look as a WR3.

3.) Joshua Kelly: Josh Kelley is everything I wanted Justin Jackson to be, the perfect complement to Austin Ekeler whose elite receiving skills will keep him ahead in the pecking chart. Kelley’s snap percentage nearly doubled from 27% to 52% in Week 2 which is of course helped by the injury to Justin Jackson. I would imagine Kelley’s usage is dependent on a positive game script because in any scenario when the Chargers would need to pass to play catch up, Austin Ekeler is the perfect running back for that situation. Surprisingly the Chargers played most of Sunday’s game with a lead which explains Kelley’s doubling of usage.

The Return of the Tight End

One of the most overlooked positions in fantasy football due to the inconsistent usage amongst teams has been the tight end. When I say inconsistent usage I mean not all tight ends are utilized the same on all teams: some teams favor blocking tight ends and other teams basically have giant receivers. For several years there was a clear top tier of players like Kelce, Kittle and Ertz followed by significant drop-offs in the next best tiers of tight ends. I even write off tight ends for the most part in drafts because there is almost no situation where I would rather have a tight end over a wide receiver, but that strategy may need to change soon. One thing I’ve noticed in the first two weeks of this young season has been the incredible collection of tight end talent across the league. We are in an era where we have some of the most exciting young prospects who will break out as legitimate receiving options for their NFL teams and usable in fantasy football in our WR/TE flex position. For brevity sake I am excluding Darren Waller and Mark Andrews who broke out last year and are established top quality tight ends going into this year.

1.) Noah Fant: The most impressive Broncos player I’ve seen in the first two weeks has been Noah Fant who I heard described on a podcast as the greatest tight end prospect in NFL history. Fant is currently the 8th highest ranked WR/TE through the first two weeks. I don’t have enough information at this time to see if Drew Lock’s long term injury will impact Fant’s value but as the old adage says: backup QBs tend to favor the tight end as a safety outlet.

2.) Mike Gesicki: In the same vein as Noah Fant, Mike Gesicki is an incredible prospect that smells of elite tight end one day in the league. Whoever is there to roster Gesicki during his breakout will be starting him in a lot of lineups. Currently Gesicki is WR/TE #20 in our scoring format and 5th amongst all tight ends in targets. For a Miami team that is in a transitional QB phase and has not figured out a strong offensive identity, I think we have only seen the floor so far and he is poised for some monster games this season.

3.) TJ Hockensen: Hockensen hasn’t had his breakout game but had two steady games with at least 4 receptions and 50 yards in each game. The offense has been in a slump and without best wide receiver Kenny Golladay (who I imagine will help Hockensen and the entire offense). Hockensen is a prime breakout candidate given the success we saw Stafford end last season with an aggressive passing attack.

4.) Hayden Hurst: Atlanta has made stars out of the tight end position in recent years (see Austin Hooper 2019 most recently) and there is no doubt they are prime red zone target candidates. Hurst is currently ranked 10th in targets amongst all tight ends which is an impressive feat considering all of the competition in his offense and passing attack.  

5.) Tyler Higbee: The most concerning factor for Higbee’s fantasy season was how a healthy Gerald Everett would take away opportunities. Well that question was answered dramatically in Week 2 as  Higbee hit the hat-trick with 3 touchdown receptions. Higbee is currently the WR/TE #10 in our scoring format but the concern is only 9 targets total on the season (which ranks outside the top 20 amongst tight ends). The points are inflated by touchdown receptions, but we saw what Higbee did last season without Everett and you have to imagine he will continue to be a touchdown threat in the Rams’ 2 tight end sets.