Thank you all for attending the 2020 BFFL Virtual Draft. With great patience and effort from our general managers, the draft day festivities were completed with minimal technical difficulties. While I missed the energy and excitement of seeing all of you on draft day, I am glad we were able to complete the most challenging draft in league history online while maintaining all league protocols and holding our annual owner’s meeting. The actual draft was completed in roughly four hours, ten minutes which is approximately forty minutes longer than the average in person draft. Should the need arise in the future to hold another virtual draft for any reason, I think we have the template in place and I want to thank the competition committee members for a swift resolution on the COVID stimulus package that will hopefully help this season. Without further ado I’d like to present my draft grades for the 2020 season along with my projections for each division.
I think another preemptive statement I need to make is what my personal biases are and how that affects my view on the draft. This season, Sammi and myself formulated a comprehensive draft strategy and with that comes a lot of biases when evaluating the other teams in the league. Therefore I think it is only reasonable before projecting the final standings this season, I think it only makes sense to see the lens from which I approached this draft.
1.) Running back in the first round was pretty much a mandate for us this season. With growing positional scarcity, devaluing the position in NFL drafts and free agency (nobody wants to pay running backs and everybody wants a rookie scale running back) and the uncertainty of a steep learning curve (see #2) I could not trust too many rookie running backs this season and wanted established workhorse backs preferably in the first two rounds. But at least I wanted to get one in the first round because without PPR, high yardage wide receivers are pretty volatile and touchdown dependent to meet first round value. If you’re comparing the stud running back vs the stud receiver you are almost looking at a sizable disparity in average points per week. Running back depth was another major point of emphasis in our draft strategy. Four running backs total is the bare minimum we were comfortable with and 4-5 is the ideal number given what falls to us in the draft. Along with two studs it’s ideal to have some high upside stashes on the bench who have value in the passing game and can assume a larger workload if the starter is injured and a clear path to a couple of great performances in the season.
2.) With no preseason games and estimated fourteen days of padded practice, the learning curve will be steep for the following categories: rookies and players entering new teams or new schemes. When possible I would like to get somebody established who is returning to a familiar scheme or scheme that has evidence of producing fantasy value in the past.
3.) I’ve made it abundantly clear about my theory in previous seasons: I think rookie running backs and second year receivers are among the best values in fantasy football. Rookie running backs usually come with reasonable price tags (minus the first round stubs in recent years such as Barkley, Elliott, Fournette, etc.) and if given enough volume will blow away their ADP (see Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, Alvin Kamara, etc.). Receivers are a little rough around the edges in their rookie year (with the notable exception of last year when the rookies killed it, see AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, Terry Mclaurin) but usually make a big jump in their second and third years and this is the best time to grab them on the ascent before they get first and second round ADPs. For example: AJ Brown was a second rounder this year, Mclaurin and Metcalf were fourth rounders this year. The rookie running backs conflicts with rule #1 above so it will be hard to gauge but enough volume would justify rookie running back picks but I avoided rookie running backs this season and threw the dice on two rookie wide receivers to see if last season was an outlier or the new normal. But usually I prefer the second or third receiver breakout season and it will be interesting to see if the rookies from last year will make a jump but will be tough after the amazing seasons they had.
4.) Reading other peoples’ draft strategies this season from the fantasy football “experts” online was pretty amusing as most people commended how deep the position was and streaming was a viable option. Unfortunately that is not the case in a 16-man league where the position has been recognized as one of the most scarce and every team rosters at least two quarterbacks so they are not stuck without a QB on a bye week. I had three tiers of quarterbacks this season for my rankings:
Tier 1: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson
Tier 2: Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Kyler Murray
Tier 3: Matt Ryan, Josh Allen, Carson Wentz, Drew Brees, Matt Stafford, Tom Brady
Obeying rule #1 above would eliminate tier 1 quarterbacks given their high price tag. This left us with two tiers of quarterbacks we were comfortable drafting and our preference was to get a Tier 2 quarterback instead of falling ass backwards into a Lamar Jackson last year which may not present itself this year. Tier 3 is the last tier of QB I am comfortable with having as my starter and below that I would be worried about your QB situation. Someone always breaks out and someone always disappoints so this is just my early gauge on the position.
5.) Going defense and kicker earlier than rounds 14-15 is never a part of my draft strategy. I can certainly respect grabbing an elite defense earlier but missing out on much needed bench depth at that round is not a trade off I want to make. The defense run in Round 8, while not unpredictable, was a little early for my taste and may affect some team evaluations.
The part about draft grades I really dislike are giving somebody a negative draft grade just days after they’ve drafted their team and optimism is at an all time high. We all know the rigors of fantasy football and that your team never looks better than the day you drafted them, unless you just won the Fantasy Superbowl. While maintaining something I’ve done in the past which is to give out projected final standings and illustrate who I think the strongest teams are in each division, I’ll also indicate the strengths and weaknesses of each team as I see them with my limited knowledge before the 2020 NFL season. It goes without saying but this is just one man’s opinion so don’t take it personally if I’ve ranked your team lower than you think or what you actually finish as. As we know the draft is just step 1, in season management of the roster via free agency, trades and knowing who to play when is the bigger piece of the pie that will ultimately take you to your final destination this season.
FFC North
1.) Team Banana Boat
Projected Record: 9-4, FFC North Winner
Team Strengths: Rock solid starters, arguably best first six rounds of the draft. This team arguably has the strongest first four receivers in Golladay, Hilton, Boyd and Christian Kirk. I was super high on Christian Kirk as a breakout WR3 this year in an explosive offense in a big year for Kyler Murray. The wide receiver depth is questionable beyond Kirk but the starters and Christian Kirk are as good as it gets this year. You pair that with two of my top 15 ADP running backs in Edwards-Helaire and David Johnson and I think this team is poised to make a playoff run this season. It’s all going to come down to Daniel Jones making a big second year jump.
Teak Weaknesses: RB and WR depth is definitely the achilles heel of this team. With Darrell Henderson’s injury in practice last week and grabbing Lesean McCoy in a crowded backfield as the only two backups, it gives me pause. But the two starters are studs so if they can stay healthy this will be a non issue. The roster construction is a little bizarre: 3 quarterbacks, two defenses, two running backs and two receivers. I would have liked to see more depth at the skills positions.
Grade: A
2.) Korriban Warriors
Projected Record: 8-5, Wildcard Contender
Team Strengths: Solid running back depth as this is one of the few teams who drafted five running backs which I love to see. Marlon Mack in the seventh round was not a sexy pick but it has great opportunity in what I perceive to be a strong rushing team this season in Indianapolis. Justin Jackson in the 8th to handcuff Austin Ekeler was a smart move that I usually advocate as well.
Team Weaknesses: Wide receiver depth is a little questionable for me. I like the starters but having Emmanuel Sanders as the WR3 is probably the bare minimum I would be comfortable with in the position. After that it is Sammy Watkins or bust. I have no faith in Alshon Jeffery or Sammy Watkins staying healthy or consistent but I love the bold lotto ticket stash of Antonio Brown.
Grade: B+
3.) Pool of the Dead
Projected Record: 8-5, Wildcard Contender
Team Strengths: I love the wide receiver depth and opening the draft with two receivers in the first three rounds, while not my preferred open, gives you an opportunity at two top 15 wide receivers and that’s what I believe this team has in Julio and Juju. Gronkowski might have been a little bit of a reach in the 7th round but if the year off gives him back even half of his most dominant season and touchdown potential with Tom Brady, it will be well worth it.
Team Weaknesses: Only three running backs scares me a lot this season especially with Miles Sanders having an undisclosed lower body injury and being week-to-week. I think Ronald Jones was a little risky for me as an RB2 but I love Philip Lindsay in the 6th round as a great value to be a player in that crowded backfield where he has consistently produced. I just wish there was a fourth running back on the team and I would feel a lot better given Miles Sanders current situation.
Grade: B+
4.) Ernie’s Rubber Duckies
Projected Record: 7-6, 4th in FFC North
Team Strengths: Being the only team that opened the draft with back to back receiver picks, your obvious advantage is consistency and a sharp advantage at the position. When you factor in Darren Waller as a third receiving option and Mike Williams (while currently banged up) as the fourth guy off the bench, it provides some great upside as a WR3.
Team Weaknesses: Applying my personal bias, it’s hard to see this team having an advantage any given week at the most important position in fantasy football and that’s the running back. Melvin Gordon is a big name and I knew somebody would take him in the third round but I did not want to be that person. The backfield is crowded and Denver has a long history of shuffling running backs and being wildly unpredictable (signed a member of the Montee Ball first round hype train). D’Andre Swift has a great path to being an RB1 but again I just don’t see how people are so convinced it’s not a timeshare with him and Kerryon Johnson.
Grade: C+
FFC East
1.) DontJackMeGoff
Projected Record: 8-5, Wildcard Contender
Team Strengths: Absolutely killed the middle rounds, love Diontae Johnson as a WR3 this year, Breshad Perriman as a strong candidate for a breakout WR3 given how last season ended. Matt Ryan is my favorite tier 3 quarterback this season and I expect that to be an explosive aerial offense (I am all in on the Calvin Ridley hype train for 2020) and the pure volume to catapult Matt Ryan to elite QB status this season, so I really liked that pick. James White and Tarik Cohen give you great value in the 7th and 8th round as running backs who will always have value in the offense given their skillset in the passing game.
Team Weaknesses: Investing two of the first round four picks in arguably the worst offense in all of football (Allen Robinson & David Montgomery, Chicago Bears). As somebody who had the misfortune of watching David Montgomery last season, I was scarred by the playcalling and incompetency of the dynamic duo of Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky. Until Trubisky can take a huge step forward in his development or they find a better quarterback, everyone in that offense is severely handicapped including the talented Allen Robinson who was still a consensus top 15 ADP wide receiver.
Grade: B+
2.) Mahomies Deezflated Nuts
Projected Record: 8-5, Wildcard Contender
Team Strengths: Two first round picks means this team is once again top heavy and stacked at the top with heavy hitters. This formula was already proven in 2019 and MD Nuts are running the same play this season with a couple of different players. Instead of taking a first round receiver paired with Mahomes, the franchise decided to go receiver heavy with Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins and used the next two picks on Aaron Jones and Russell Wilson. As far as the top 4 players on any team, no other team can match this firepower and if you catch this team on the wrong week you will get buried.
Team Weaknesses: The weakest bench and biggest dropoff in talent from starters to bench. Last season MD Nuts made it work via patchwork bench players and drafting some great late round talent such as Tyrell Williams. I expect an Aaron Jones regression from his insane touchdown total in 2019 and after that this team takes a big dropoff in RB depth talent. I would feel a lot better if one of those first round picks was a running back to pair with Aaron Jones, then this would be my Superbowl favorite team.
Grade: B
3.) Gandalf The Goat
Projected Record: 7-6, 4th in FFC East
Team Strengths: Patrick Mahomes; the most interesting person in the draft for me personally this season. I knew he would be the first quarterback off the board but I was curious just how high people were willing to pick him. I honestly thought he fell a little because I could have seen him going in the 6-10 range and I think if the right GM was there he would have gone there. In a season where consistency and established offensive schemes are a luxury, I think there is no more sure guarantee that 16 healthy games of Patrick Mahomes equates to the highest scoring QB in fantasy and the biggest positional advantage in fantasy football. I also love the running back upside picks of Zack Moss and JK Dobbins and think one of those guys will overtake Devin Singletary in the starting lineup at some point.
Team Weaknesses: The starting running backs are a little weak which is to be expected when you go QB first round and then trade out of the second round. The wide receivers are really subpar and the biggest weak point of this team by far. After DK Metcalf, I think Julian Edelman fell for a reason: age and chemistry with a new QB. Brandin Cooks I value more as a WR4 and he’s starting while Deebo Samuel is out on injury. If this team can weather the storm early and get back a healthy Deebo, they will be in a much better position but I think the beginning will be rough.
Grade: C+
FFC South
1.) Dr Jenious
Projected Record: 9-4, Competing for FFC South Division Winner
Team Strengths: Great rock steady all around roster, one of my favorite constructed teams. It’s got the four running backs I’m looking for (I would probably have gone somewhere else before Darrell Williams instead of him) but you pair that with three great wide receivers, a couple of rookies who have big opportunities to be draft steals and one of my favorite Tier 3 quarterbacks in Josh Allen.
Team Weaknesses: Wide receiver health is my biggest concern for this team and it’s highly probable given the two players’ histories. When your first two receivers are Keenan Allen and Will Fuller you are always worried about the injury bug biting your team and that could present the opportunity for another team in this division to take up the mantle. But if both receivers can stay healthy and productive (and I love Will Fuller’s value this season to eat up a lot of those vacated DeAndre Hopkins targets) this team is stacked and my favorite to win the division.
Grade: A-
2.) Uur UPS
Projected Record: 9-4, Competing for FFC South Division Winner
Team Strengths: Great starting five of Kyler Murray, McCaffrey, Amari Cooper, DJ Chark and Cam Akers is a great start to the draft. Choosing to go WR-WR at the 2-3 turn might prove to be a mistake with players like Chris Carson and Davied Johnson on the board, but I think this team recovered well in taking Akers and Gibson in rounds 4 and 6 to take two opportunities at another usable RB2 and possibly swap them out based on matchups. The Kyler Murray projected second year leap is phenomenal and when you factor in his high ceiling with rushing he has top 2 potential at QB.
Team Weaknesses: I really did not like the rounds 7-10 for this team and thought there were better picks available at each round and Jalen Reagor over any other receiver in Round 7 besides Tyrell Williams might be a reach. Michael Pittman has some nice breakout potential but again there were just better receivers I like on the board after that pick was made. Chris Thompson was a little bit of a reach and I think there were some nice stash backups I would rather have at that point in the draft.
Grade: A-
3.) Da Moon’s Huge Craters
Projected Record: 8-5, Wildcard Contender
Team Strengths: It has to be the running backs and grabbing a tier 2 quarterback in Dak Prescott that I like the most about this team. Derrick Henry is who I thought we would get at 4 so I was surprised to see him taken at 2 but I understand after seeing what Henry did to defenders last season. Leonard Fournette works as a RB2 in a non ppr format but the concern there is if the team actually wants him and how much they will utilize him. If you told me Fournette is going to be sufficiently utilized as an 80%+ snap rate and will stay healthy for at least 13 games then this pick will pay off well. I love the depth at running back and this team has my ideal number of 5 running backs with Fournette handcuffed and a couple of upside stashes in Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Jerrick McKinnon.
Team Weaknesses: The wide receivers on this team do not excite me. Cortland Sutton was a revelation last season but there are just a couple of receivers in the third round that I liked more than him. I’m not a big proponent of taking a tight end over quality WR2s that were available at the time such as Marquise Brown and Tyler Boyd who followed shortly after. Preston Williams has some nice upside as a sleeper WR3 but outside of that the bench does not excite me and ends after an aging Larry Fitzgerald who I expect to get phased out with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona offense.
Grade: B+
4.) Bruce Almightys
Projected Record: 7-6, 4th in FFC South
Team Strengths: Drafting Mattison in Round 6 to compliment the first round pick of Dalvin Cook was a great move to secure the Minnesota backfield and eliminate any doubt was a great move. I also love Michael Gallup to be the best Cowboys receiver value this season given how much more efficient he was than Cooper last season. This team is stacked with a lot of wide receiver talent.
Team Weaknesses: Being the last team to draft a quarterback could be a risky move but it allows you to attack the other positions more aggressively in the early to mid rounds which is exactly what they did. I’m never in favor of a kicker before Round 15 even considering how elite Justin Tucker is. Bridgewater and Foles as your two starting QBs might prove to be a mistake and it’s a little too bold for me.
Grade: C+
FFC West
1.) Sacramento Wolfpack
Projected Record: 10-3, FFC West Winner
Team Strengths: In my opinion this was the best draft of any team this season. Everything I would see in an ideal fantasy football team in BFFL was executed to perfection in this draft. Chris Carson, a second round running back in my opinion, was drafted in the third round allowing AJ Brown one of the most exciting wide receivers who I anticipated this season. When you look at AJ Brown’s extremely efficient season last season and combine higher snap rate and more targets this season, the sky is the limit for how great this young wide receiver can be this season. It’s safe to say Brown is the most interesting wide receiver I’m watching this season. Stefon Diggs, while moving to a new team, will provide a great deep threat to a quarterback who likes to throw deep but does not have the ammunition until now. Marquise Brown is by far my favorite fifth round receiver and prototypical WR3 I look for every season: somebody whose workload is set to increase substantially and provides a high ceiling in a high powered offense. Beyond that you have Mecole Hardman and Allen Lazard who are tremendous upside bench receivers with opportunities to assume more work in an explosive offense with an elite quarterback. The running back depth gives you a usable RB2 in Jordan Howard as the third back and two high upside stashes in AJ Dillon and Anthony McFarland. Matthew Stafford was the last quarterback taken in my Tier 3 quarterbacks and the timing was perfect to grab him.
Team Weaknesses: None.
Grade: A+
2.) Lin Sanity
Projected Record: 9-4, Wildcard
Team Strengths: I love the running back depth on this team. This was another great example of how I would like to see a team construct its running backs: two workhorses in the first two rounds, Kerryon Johnson in the sixth round in a timeshare and a great upside pick in Bryce Love who is another name picking up steam in training camp to pick up some of the running back work alongside Antonio Gibson. The receivers are also great and I especially love the DJ Moore WR2 and Darius Slayton WR4 picks as the best values. I think on paper Lin Sanity is a great team that could win other divisions but this division is extremely stacked and don’t be surprised if they send three representatives to the playoffs this season.
Team Weaknesses: I think this team waited too long on quarterback. It’s hard to refute what Ryan Tannehill did last season but I expect some regression this season given the abnormally high passing rate inside the redzone for the Titans last year and I expect more of those touches to go to Derrick Henry in the rushing game.
Grade: A-
3.) Phillipines Garbage Dumps
Projected Record: 8-5, Wildcard Contender
Team Strengths: I’m always worried about a team without a first round pick in such a big league but surprisingly this team grabbed what I perceived to be a first round talent in Joe Mixon, so maybe it will work out this year. The wide receivers are steady and all around this team looks really oslid at the three receivers, Joe Mixon and Carson Wentz one of my Tier 3 quarterbacks. I always wonder how different this draft would look with a first round pick and then Joe Mixon taken in the second round.
Team Weaknesses: While this team has three great upside running backs, I believe Kareem Hunt is barely usable as a RB2 and the lack of another high volume running back at the beginning of the season can hurt his team in divisional games. I would have liked to see one more running back with a clearly defined role in the starting of the season. Currently my estimation is Nick Chubb will assume 75%+ of snap rates and give up some work to Kareem Hunt on passing downs. Hunt is too talented to sit on the bench and not contribute to a team, but then again you can say that about Chubb as well. Latavius Murray and Chase Edmonds are excellent RB4/5 options but I would have just liked to see one more flex worthy running back on the bench.
Grade: B+
4.) Elk Grove Spartans
Projected Record: 7-6, 4th in FFC West
Team Strengths: For this team to work, you have to bank on Lamar Jackson making a repeat MVP case and I see two avenues to this path: defenses don’t adjust to the style of offense that allowed Lamar Jackson’s high floor high ceiling combination with read option rushing abilities and Jackson makes a huge leap in developing the passing game to substitute some of the yards on the ground with yards through the air. While Lamar is a tier 1 quarterback because of his high ceiling, I think the first round was too early and I believe he would have been there in the second round to pair with a great first round running back.
Team Weaknesses: I’m a huge fan of Tevin Coleman this season to be the best 49er running back at his value and subsequently I am avoiding Raheem Mostert at his ADP. This team will have to play the difficult guessing game of which one to start on a weekly basis and unless they are starting both and the 49ers dominance in the run game continues, it’s going to be difficult to balance. I am also not crazy about some of the wide receiver selections and the wide receiver depth. Mclaurin is a phenomenal talent but I would have liked a couple of other receivers in the same round over him: Metcalf, Gallup, and Diggs who all have better quarterbacks. AJ Green is a nice gamble for WR3 with WR1 upside but I’m a little concerned with the injury and age. After that the dropoff is substantial going to DeSean Jackson who will be great for one or two games this season. If I take a risk with AJ Green, I want to come back the next round and grab a steady WR4 who I can plug and play.
Grade: C+
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